欧元走强和超买读数可能会进一步抑制美元，这表明比特币正处于下跌的风险之中。
美元指数(DXY)在过去两周内从牛市中全面下跌，在达到20年105点后下跌了3.20%。
美元市场存在估值过高的风险。
在持续买入12个月之前，过去两周美元回调。
总之，为了应对美联储鹰派立场的担忧，以及最近乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的军事冲突，美元在一年内比一篮子主要外币增加了约14.3%。
美元指数从20年高点回落，但是DXY见顶会引发比特币的反弹吗？
根据美国银行最近对288名资产配置者的调查，全球基金经理的平均现金余额自9/11以来增长了6.1%。该报告还指出，66%的资产经理认为，全球利润将在2022年下降，这促使他们持有超重的现金头寸。
最近几个月，市场囤积了大量美元，德意志银行（deutschebank）策略师Georgesaravelos向英国《金融时报》表示，他补充说，这导致了美元估值的严重高估
因此，正如美元每周相对强度指数（RSI）读数（如下图所示）所示，美元最近的下跌可能是对其超买状态的临时修正。
从进一步的技术角度来看，自2021年1月以来，美元指数可能会进一步下跌到上升趋势线，如下图所示。
美元指数从20年高点回落，但是DXY见顶会引发比特币的反弹吗？
下一个下行目标位于100附近的斐波那契回调线0.786，如果有更多的抛售，该指数可能会从目前的阻力区间回撤。
欧元走强前景。
本周早些时候，美元指数也下跌，因为欧洲央行(ECB)总裁克里斯托诺在5月23日制定了更多鹰派的新政策。
为了放弃欧洲央行长达10年的鸽派货币政策，Lagarde承诺在2022年9月加息，这实际上导致了负利率。
所以，欧元区的利率将反弹到零，这一前景使得欧元兑美元走强。
美元指数从20年高点回落，但是DXY见顶会引发比特币的反弹吗？
然而，O最近的一项调查显示，欧元区对商业增长的信心依然强劲，尽管乌克兰俄罗斯危机继续，能源供应陷入混乱。这意味着欧元将获得更大的上升，并可能降低美元的压力。
美元指数从20年高点回落，但是DXY见顶会引发比特币的反弹吗？
IFO调查显示，彭博社有强烈的德国商业信心。
现在有信心地说，美元已经进入了一个疲软的趋势，现在太早了，Bloombergopinion资深编辑Johnauthers说。他补充道：
但是它的下跌也表明，人们正在重新考虑‘滞胀和利率越来越高’的说法。
比特币的新兴市场货币。
美元指数疲软只是意味着相对于外币的权重下降。然而，对美元的深入研究表明，在高通货膨胀的环境下，美元的购买力正在下降。截至2022年4月，消费者价格指数(CPI)已超过8%。
因此，尽管美元比一年前走强，但它未能使新兴市场的货币陷入困境，从而打破了它们的负相关性，引起了广泛关注。
值得注意的是，自2022年1月以来，国家货币的回报一直高于美元，包括巴西雷亚尔(BRL)和智利比索(CLP)。
美元指数从20年高点回落，但是DXY见顶会引发比特币的反弹吗？
来源：TradingView，BRL/USD和CLP/USD日线图。
当美元上涨时，新兴市场的货币往往表现不佳，主要是因为投资者认为美元是他们在全球市场不确定时期的终极避风港。但投资者正在重新考虑他们的策略，因为乌克兰和俄罗斯的危机导致了商品价格的上涨。
与此同时，提高利率的国家也在为其国民货币创造更好的投资环境，BMOCapitalMarkets欧洲外汇家也在为其国民货币创造更好的投资环境。
他对《华尔街日报》的演讲摘录如下：
为了跟上美联储的步伐，新兴市场央行被迫收紧政策。要么这样做，要么实施资本管制。
比特币没有考虑到美元与新兴市场货币之间持续的竞争。自2021年11月以来，其价值下降了50%以上，并与风险资产仍有很大关系。
美元指数从20年高点回落，但是DXY见顶会引发比特币的反弹吗？
与DXY和EUR/USD的相关性来源：TradingView，BTC/USD日线图显示。
然而，本周，比特币和美元指数之间的长期负相关关系已经转变为正相关。这表明，美元市场的进一步下跌可能不会引发比特币价格在短期内的反弹。
根据Cointelegraph的报道，关于200000美元的宏观底部甚至更低的呼声越来越高，因为比特币升到30000美元的大关。
石家良认为，对于美元指数和美国债券收益率来说，美联储的政策加速了调整，预计将由市场进行定价。在美元指数达到峰值后，短期高位下跌，美国债券收益率也高位下跌。预计美元指数和美国债券收益率均达到峰值，进一步上升的可能性很小。今年下半年，随着欧元走强，美元指数可能会走弱。目前，美元指数对大宗商品的影响相对有限。在疫情和地缘政治的影响下，供需矛盾是影响大宗商品价格的核心因素。
2年期美国国债收益率（对美联储短期利率最敏感）在上一交易日下跌5.33%，与美元指数的趋势形式相似，两者趋于同步下跌。

A stronger euro and overbought readings could further weigh on the dollar, suggesting Bitcoin is at risk of falling.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen across the board from the bull market over the past two weeks, down 3.20% after reaching 105 points in 20 years.
There is a risk of overvaluation in the U.S. dollar market.
The USD has pulled back over the past two weeks before continuing to buy for 12 months.
In summary, the U.S. dollar has gained about 14.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies over the year in response to concerns about the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the recent military conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
The U.S. dollar index retreats from 20-year highs, but will DXY peak trigger a Bitcoin rebound?
According to a recent Bank of America survey of 288 asset allocators, the average cash balance of global fund managers has increased by 6.1% since 9/11. The report also noted that 66% of asset managers believe global profits will decline in 2022, prompting them to hold overweight cash positions.
The market has accumulated a lot of dollars in recent months, Deutschebank strategist Georgesaravelos told the Financial Times, adding that this has led to a significant overvaluation of the dollar
Therefore , the greenback’s recent decline could be a temporary correction to its overbought status, as indicated by the U.S. Dollar’s ​​weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading (shown in the chart below).
From a further technical perspective, the U.S. Dollar Index is likely to fall further towards the uptrend line since January 2021, as shown in the chart below.
The U.S. dollar index retreats from 20-year highs, but will DXY peak trigger a Bitcoin rebound?
The next downside target is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near 100, and if there is more selling, the index may retreat from the current resistance zone.
Prospects for a stronger euro.
Earlier this week, the U.S. dollar index also fell as European Central Bank (ECB) President Cristiano Cristiano laid out more hawkish new policies on May 23.
In order to abandon the European Central Bank's 10-year dovish monetary policy, Lagarde promised to raise interest rates in September 2022, which actually led to negative interest rates.
So, the prospect that interest rates in the euro zone will bounce back to zero makes the euro stronger against the dollar.
The U.S. dollar index retreats from 20-year highs, but will DXY peak trigger a Bitcoin rebound?
However, a recent survey showed that confidence in business growth in the euro zone remains strong, even as the Ukraine-Russia crisis continues and energy supplies are in chaos. This means the euro will gain more ground and could put less pressure on the dollar.
The U.S. dollar index retreats from 20-year highs, but will DXY peak trigger a Bitcoin rebound?
The IFO survey shows that Bloomberg has strong German business confidence.
It is too early to say with confidence that the dollar has entered a weak trend, said John Authors, senior editor at Bloomberg Opinion. He added:
But its decline also suggests that talk of 'stagflation and ever-higher interest rates' is being reconsidered.
Bitcoin is an emerging market currency.
Weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index simply means a decrease in weight relative to foreign currencies. However, a closer look at the U.S. dollar shows that its purchasing power is declining in a high-inflation environment. As of April 2022, the consumer price index (CPI) has exceeded 8%.
So while the U.S. dollar is stronger than a year ago, it has failed to frustrate emerging market currencies, breaking their negative correlation and causing widespread concern.
It’s worth noting that since January 2022, returns have been higher for national currencies than the U.S. dollar, including the Brazilian real (BRL) and the Chilean peso (CLP).
The U.S. dollar index retreats from 20-year highs, but will DXY peak trigger a Bitcoin rebound?
Source: TradingView, BRL/USD and CLP/USD daily charts.
Emerging market currencies tend to underperform when the U.S. dollar rises, largely because investors see the U.S. dollar as their ultimate safe haven in times of uncertainty in global markets. But investors are rethinking their strategies as crises in Ukraine and Russia lead to higher commodity prices.
At the same time, countries that raise interest rates are also creating a better investment environment for their national currencies, and BMO Capital Markets European foreign exchange experts are also creating a better investment environment for their national currencies.
Excerpts from his speech to the Wall Street Journal are as follows:
Emerging market central banks have been forced to tighten policy in order to keep up with the Fed. Either do that or impose capital controls.
Bitcoin does not take into account the ongoing competition between the US dollar and emerging market currencies. Its value has fallen by more than 50% since November 2021 and remains strongly correlated with risk assets.
The U.S. dollar index retreats from 20-year highs, but will DXY peak trigger a Bitcoin rebound?
Correlation with DXY and EUR/USD Source: TradingView, BTC/USD daily chart display.
This week, however, the long-running negative correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index has turned positive. This suggests that further declines in the U.S. dollar market may not trigger a rebound in Bitcoin prices in the short term.
As reported by Cointelegraph, calls for a macro bottom of $200,000 or even lower are growing as Bitcoin rises to the $30,000 mark.
Shi Jialiang believes that for the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields, the Fed’sPolicies have accelerated adjustments and are expected to be priced by the market. After the U.S. dollar index peaked, short-term highs fell, and U.S. bond yields also fell from highs. Both the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields are expected to have peaked, with further gains unlikely. The U.S. dollar index is likely to weaken in the second half of the year as the euro strengthens. At present, the impact of the U.S. dollar index on commodities is relatively limited. Under the influence of the epidemic and geopolitics, the contradiction between supply and demand is the core factor affecting commodity prices.
The 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yield (the most sensitive to the Fed's short-term interest rates) fell 5.33% on the previous trading day, which is similar to the trend of the U.S. dollar index, and the two tend to fall simultaneously.