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Does the rise of the Lightning Network really determine the future of Bitcoin?

It has been ten years since the birth of Bitcoin. Ten years ago, if someone had told his founder Satoshi Nakamoto that this new decentralized currency would boom in 2019, he might have considered his experiment a success. It is indeed possible for Bitcoin to become the world's currency, even if it is not as magical as Satoshi Nakamoto said. Even today, 10 years later, there are still people who criticize the ideas in its white paper.

Although Bitcoin has now become a widely used investment and speculative asset, due to its own design and huge demand, Bitcoin is far from being completely decentralized. The goal of free currency is still far away. But if the new solution does solve some existing problems, then its status quo will definitely be greatly improved. As long as the transaction cost of the Bitcoin blockchain is not higher than that of the Lightning Network, users will not transfer assets to other public chains. If the Bitcoin blockchain can continue to expand transaction processing through other solutions besides the Lightning Network in the future, then it may eventually develop into the world currency originally envisioned by Satoshi Nakamoto.

(ii) How to accelerate the development of the supply chain

Supply chain finance refers to enterprises at the core of the industrial chain that rely on high credit advantages to obtain cheap funds through relatively effective means. The credit information system and complete risk prevention measures provide financing services to customers upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, obtain new profit growth points, and build a closer industrial chain ecosystem.
The scale of my country’s supply chain finance market
Since 2012, affected by the significant slowdown in world economic recovery and the increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy, international and domestic market demand has been generally insufficient, and the problem of overcapacity in various industries in my country has become more prominent. Against this background, the scale of corporate accounts receivable continues to rise, the collection cycle continues to lengthen, the risk of accounts receivable arrears and bad debts increases significantly, and corporate working capital tensions further intensify.
According to the "Supply Chain Financial Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" released by the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, currently, the scale of accounts receivable of enterprises across the country is more than 20 trillion. By fully utilizing these accounts receivable as potential collateral for bank loans, it can be foreseen that my country's supply chain finance development market has huge potential in the future. In 2015, the market size of my country's supply chain finance reached 11.97 trillion yuan. By 2018, my country's supply chain finance market The market size of chain finance will reach 13.7 trillion yuan, and it is expected that the market size of my country's supply chain finance will reach about 14.98 trillion yuan in 2020.
Against the backdrop of difficulties and expensive financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, supply chain finance is receiving more and more attention. With the promotion of policies, technology and other factors, various market entities such as commercial banks, e-commerce platforms, P2P online lending platforms, software service providers, and third-party supply chain financial service platforms have joined the blue ocean of supply chain finance.
Good news comes frequently, and supply chain financial policies are introduced one after another.
Since 2017, the country has successively issued major policies, and incentive policies related to supply chain finance have been introduced one after another.
In February 2016, the People's Bank of China and eight other ministries and commissions issued the "Several Opinions on Financial Support for Stable Growth of Industry, Adjustment of Structure and Increase of Efficiency", proposing to vigorously develop accounts receivable financing.
In May 2017, the "Special Action Plan for Financing Accounts Receivable for Small and Micro Enterprises (2017-2019)" was released. The "Plan" pointed out that accounts receivable are important current assets for small and micro enterprises. The development of accounts receivable financing is of great significance for effectively revitalizing the existing assets of enterprises and improving the financing efficiency of small and micro enterprises.
In October 2017, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Actively Promoting Supply Chain Innovation and Application", encouraging commercial banks, core supply chain enterprises, etc. to establish supply chain financial service platforms to provide small, medium and micro enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the supply chain. Enterprises provide efficient and convenient financing channels.
In October 2017, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly proposed the concept of modern supply chain.
In April 2018, the Ministry of Commerce and other eight departments issued a notice on launching supply chain innovation and application pilots.
Technology empowers supply chain finance, and blockchain helps “leaders” break through
If supply chain finance wants to achieve further development, it needs to rely on forward-looking technologies such as big data and blockchain to penetrate into the supply chain The financial scenario paved the way for the development of supply chain finance.
Among them, the convergence between blockchain and supply chain finance mainly revolves around core enterprises or third-party service organizations. Blockchain can be used to integrate and link the data of each node to build a real and non-tamperable The supply chain data chain can help realize the vertical breakthrough of a certain segmented industry, and also allow the "leaders" in supply chain finance companies to break out of the tight encirclement with the help of blockchain technology.

Is 2022 a good time to buy a house? Do you have any plans to buy a house?

First of all, it is uncertain what will happen to China’s housing prices in the future.

Overall, in the next 2-5 years, the first and second tiers will fall by 15%, and the third and fourth tiers will drop by 30%. It is a high probability event. The first and second tiers have low holding costs, while the third and fourth tiers have limited purchasing power.

Nowadays, the leverage of residents is too high, and it is difficult for the state to increase wages even if they release funds. Basically, they are transferred to Leeks in the form of leveraged credit. The current situation is really unbearable. In the past few years, almost everyone who has enough basic money to make a down payment has bought a car. It is really dangerous to double the down payment.

Do the third and fourth tiers want to sell land? Of course they do. Is there a shortage of land? There is certainly no shortage. The new areas are all filled with land. The key is that this liability is not transferred to home buyers, and the government's land sales money is the bank's money. Again, there are too many stocks and I really can’t pick up the leeks. Recently, there have been more and more failed land auctions, and it is urgent to supplement finance with property taxes.

The essence of the first and second lines is the same, but the situation is slightly better, because the belief and holding cost are too low, and the two sides are still in a stalemate. Shenzhen, Shanghai restricted the loan limit, the transaction volume fell instantly, and the so-called big guys who bought the houses they just needed with full payment disappeared.

The introduction of the property tax has completely changed this equilibrium state. The guide price is obviously prepared for the property tax. Otherwise, who else would be so tired to give a guide price to each community. If the real estate tax pilot is implemented quickly, it will be by the end of the year. If it is slow, it will be next year. It will definitely be launched. It will not be as harsh as everyone thinks, and it will not be like Shanghai and Chongqing before. Sell ​​the land when it is time to do so without delaying property taxes. After all, there will be a transition time, and the ratio between the two will be dynamically adjusted. At the same time, state-owned developers began to develop public rental housing. The country has many options for building public rental housing: a large number of vacant office buildings in the city center have been renovated, have good locations, and are endorsed by the state. It just depends on whether the country is willing or not. As the holding cost goes up, first-line housing prices will definitely loosen, but after all, if the first-line housing prices decline for a few years, a 15% drop is acceptable, and it will just go back to around 2019. So I personally feel that the first and second tiers will be an excellent low point to get started in 2-3 years.

It is estimated that it will take 2-3 years before the third and fourth tiers are fully levied, but if we have expectations, we will not be afraid of rising prices. The bubble in the third and fourth tiers is still quite serious. A 30% drop is considered good, but it may be cut in half directly.

This time we look at the determination and means to deal with double reductions. It feels really different.

Finally, no matter whether you buy it or not, just pay attention to the leverage. Yesterday I saw a post about buying a house in Chengdu, draining the down payment of both parents and borrowing foreign debt. It's so dangerous. Many people born in the 1990s have not realized that their parents' bodies are getting weaker day by day, and people will get sick as they get older. Being sick costs a lot of energy and money.

㈣ ​Nine "conjectures" about financial technology in 2021

In 2020, while financial technology is booming, it has also encountered ups and downs.

On the one hand, a large number of intelligent new technologies are increasingly widely used in the financial field, making the integration of finance + technology increasingly closer, creating a series of new scenarios and business formats; on the other hand, regulatory authorities have strict regulations on financial technology business formats. The regulations are becoming increasingly strict, causing financial technology to face increasingly severe compliance operation challenges.

At the end of last year, the financial regulatory authorities gave clear "red lines" for the supervision of future financial technology formats: first, resolutely break monopoly, correct and investigate unfair competition behaviors, and maintain fair competition market order; The second is to insist that all financial activities must be subject to supervision in accordance with laws and regulations, insist that financial businesses must be operated with licenses, and insist on "zero tolerance" for all kinds of illegal activities; the third is to insist on "two unshakable", protect property rights in accordance with the law, and promote enterprises Family spirit, stimulate the vitality of market entities and social creativity, and enhance the core competitiveness of my country's financial technology enterprises in the world.

According to many senior financial technology experts interviewed, in 2021, relevant departments will implement a series of regulatory measures based on the above-mentioned regulatory principles.

1. It is likely to adopt functional supervision on the financial technology industry.Regulation, the so-called functional regulation, means regulation based on the nature of financial activities, and financial products with the same functions and the same legal relationship are subject to consistent regulation in accordance with the same rules. Taking the Internet joint loan business as an example, any institution that engages in related Internet joint loans, whether it is a fund provider, a risk control model provider, a customer acquisition channel provider, or a technical support provider, must be included in a unified regulatory framework. , and all operational links of the entire Internet joint loan business must be subject to penetrating supervision, so as to eliminate regulatory arbitrage and avoidance of supervision.

2. Strengthen the behavioral supervision of the financial technology industry. Currently, many Internet financial technology platforms engage in misleading product sales and exaggerated advertising. For example, in terms of loan interest rates, word games are used to hide "high interest rates" The truth is that other charging items are deliberately concealed in product promotion. In this regard, relevant departments will strictly supervise the promotion and promotion of various Internet financial products, effectively curb false product promotion, and safeguard the financial rights and interests of consumers.

3. Implement prudent supervision of financial technology platforms. For banks, global financial regulatory authorities currently set regulatory requirements for banks on capital, liquidity, bad debt reporting, etc. to effectively prevent damage to depositors' interests arising from the outbreak of bank operating risks. However, for financial technology platforms, these regulatory requirements are still blank, resulting in a lack of prudential supervision system for financial technology platforms.

At present, many Internet platforms expand Internet deposits, Internet loans, Internet financial management, Internet asset management, Internet securities dealers and other businesses, and actually perform banking functions such as deposits, investments, and loans. Therefore, based on the considerations of prudent supervision , it is also necessary for relevant departments to implement regulatory indicators such as capital and bad debt provisions for financial technology platforms involving deposits, investments, and loans to effectively prevent damage to investor interests derived from their operating risks.

4. Comprehensively implement the protection of consumer rights and interests. As some financial technology platforms rely on capital expansion and market status to achieve "monopoly operations", the financial rights and interests of many consumers have indeed been violated, including when they obtain Internet financial services, they have to authorize the provision of a large amount of personal privacy information; When consuming loan products on the Internet, due to certain algorithmic technologies of the fintech platform, one can only choose products prioritized by the fintech platform, resulting in the weakening of one's own product selection rights; while obtaining the convenient services of Internet financial products, many product risk clauses deliberately Being placed in an inconspicuous place has led to problems such as product information asymmetry among consumers. Therefore, many senior financial technology platform experts pointed out that in 2021, relevant departments will strictly supervise the violations of financial technology platforms that infringe on consumer rights. Therefore, 2021 may trigger comprehensive rectifications of many Internet financial platforms.

With the globalThe epidemic situation is still severe, and contactless living and contactless financial service formats will emerge in more and more countries, which will invisibly give China's financial technology industry huge "globalization" space.

However, due to the epidemic, relevant technical personnel are unable to go abroad. Currently, the two parties mainly conduct active communication around technology output and joint construction of intelligent systems through remote video and other methods.

They pointed out that once the epidemic situation improves in 2021 and relevant conditions are met, they will quickly dispatch relevant technical personnel overseas to help many overseas cross-border e-commerce platforms implement various intelligent financial technology operation systems (such as Cross-border efficient fund settlement and supporting financial services). Therefore, 2021 is likely to become a new year for the “globalization” of China’s financial technology to restart.
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On December 31, 2020, the “Futian Youli Digital RMB Red Packet” New Year consumption promotion event was officially launched. "After that, Shenzhen launched the second large-scale RMB red envelope test event. Two days ago, the digital RMB Beijing Winter Olympics pilot application was launched on the Beijing Subway Daxing Airport Line, marking a phased achievement in Beijing's promotion of digital RMB pilots around the Winter Olympics scenario. Progress.

In early December, Yue Weiman, President of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is currently working with the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China to study the technical testing of using digital renminbi for cross-border payments and make corresponding Technical preparation.

Previously, the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Changning District People's Government of Shanghai. The two parties will establish a Shanghai Fintech Company to gradually implement trade finance blockchain platforms and technologies The R&D center was launched.

As the pilot application scenarios of the central bank’s legal digital renminbi (DECP) “bloom in many places” with good results, the central bank is likely to take the lead in launching the use of DECP in some cities in 2021.< br />
He believes that if relevant departments use new application scenario pilots in the future and are convinced that the relevant operating systems are stable enough and payment security is effectively guaranteed, it is not ruled out that DECP will be officially put into use on a small scale in 2021. 2021 will be the "first year" when the central bank's legal digital renminbi is truly launched.

As more and more banks actively promote open banking strategies, and financial technology platforms actively integrate various scenarios to expand their business scope, finance and scenarios are working closely together to understand how to effectively protect the security of customers’ personal data. , has become a new challenge faced by financial technology.

In particular, relevant departments are actively implementing the protection of consumer rights and interests, taking illegal acquisition, abuse, and illegal trading of user information as important supervisory tasks, and also make recommendations for the compliance sharing of data in finance + scenarios and finance + ecology. higher requirement.

A financial technology platform risk control director gave an example. For example, in the field of Internet consumer loan cooperation, the scenario party and the financial institution each provide the behavioral characteristics of a customer (private information such as personal real-name identity is concealed) , for example, he likes to shop online at 10-11 pm, and usually likes to order a cup of Starbucks coffee for takeout at 2-3 pm, etc. Driven by privacy-protecting shared intelligence technology, financial institutions (or scenario parties) integrate their own multi-dimensional data Technology, I found that I have a customer A who seems to "fit" the above behavioral characteristics, so I use more dimensions of big data analysis to compare and determine whether the customer behavior characteristics provided by the other party are highly consistent with customer A, and finally accurately understand the "customer A" identity".

“The benefits of this approach are, firstly, to ensure that financial institutions and scenario parties achieve compliant information sharing operations in scenario + financial cooperation (there is no leakage of personal privacy data), and secondly, financial institutions ( (or scenario side) With the help of its own multi-dimensional data intelligent analysis technology, it can independently and accurately determine the identity of customers (there is no leakage of personal privacy data information and illegal transactions), and it can effectively provide accurate risk pricing for Internet loans and avoid infringements such as high loan interest rate pricing. Consumer rights actions take place,” he noted. As relevant departments will take strict measures to ensure the security of personal privacy data in 2021, shared intelligence technology based on privacy protection is bound to gain broad development space in open banking, scenario finance and other fields, and even become scenario + finance, finance + ecological closed loop Standard technology.

Although blockchain technology is developing vigorously, the different blockchain forms it has formed have led to inconsistent technical standards, resulting in huge differences in data formats, open interfaces, etc. among different blockchains. This makes it very difficult for financial institutions deploying different blockchain technologies to interact with blockchain data information, which greatly affects the approval efficiency and capital investment speed of blockchain-based bill financing, supply chain finance, and trade financing businesses. Unable to respond quickly to the financial service needs of the real economy.

The increasing maturity of cross-chain technology is likely to completely change this situation in 2021. The so-called cross-chain technology refers to the "interoperability and interconnection" of enterprise data and interfaces in different blockchain technology forms, so that financial institutions can achieve a high degree of interconnection between enterprise information and business data even if they use different blockchain technology forms.Through interconnection, the efficiency of bill financing, supply chain finance, and trade financing approval and the speed of capital investment for enterprises upstream and downstream of the industrial chain will be greatly improved.

Driven by financial services for the real economy, more and more financial technology platforms have noticed that financial technology not only helps stimulate people’s consumption potential to promote the rapid recovery of the real economy, but also empowers traditional Retail companies and manufacturing companies have stronger business development vitality. This makes financial technology play an increasingly important role in the wave of industrial Internet and industrial digitalization.

After all, on the one hand, it opens up more consumption scenarios and consumption formats, allows consumer finance to be successfully embedded in richer consumption scenarios, and serves the rapid development of more and more physical enterprises. On the other hand, it greatly improves consumer enterprises and manufacturing enterprises. With its customer acquisition and operation service capabilities, it empowers enterprises to operate digitally, thus broadening financing channels for physical enterprises.

It is foreseeable that after the business preparation and technical reserves in 2020, the integration of financial technology and industrial Internet will enter a full-scale outbreak stage in 2021.

At the end of September last year, Ant Group invited the world’s top experts and scholars to share their thoughts, and the research report “Top Experts’ Frontier Trend Forecast of Top Ten Financial Technology Trends in 2021” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) showed that in 2020 The rise of many new smart technologies will have a huge impact on the financial industry.

The first is the timing diagram calculation. In the field of financial technology, more and more high-tech frauds are occurring, posing increasingly severe challenges to the anti-fraud risk control of financial institutions. This has inadvertently given rise to the comprehensive application of sequence diagram computing technology. The data construction of the so-called time series graph calculation will move from single financial behavior data to cross-industry multi-dimensional heterogeneous data; from single time slice graph data to time series-based graph data.

Therefore, in terms of financial risk control decision-making, sequence diagram calculation can help financial institutions achieve second-level group-related decision-making capabilities, solve the problem of information asymmetry, and at the same time, structure unstructured data using In order to understand and analyze the huge loopholes that may exist in the current credit risk control decision-making mechanism (captured and used by fraudsters to defraud loans), and conduct risk warnings, etc.

The second is knowledge graph and multi-modal learning technology. In traditional financial institutions, many business processes still have complex processes, require a lot of manpower review investment, and have high labor costs. The introduction of key core technologies such as knowledge graphs, multi-modal machine learning, and shared intelligence will effectively solve the above pain points. Taking smart insurance services as an example, technological applications such as intelligent underwriting and intelligent claims based on knowledge graphs and multi-modal learning, It will further enhance the degree of automation in the insurance industry, reduce human review investment, and improve user experience.

The third is machine learning for automatic factor discovery. Different from the manually set factor parameters in the past, the basicThe automatic factors formed by the deep learning model of intelligent technology can simultaneously explore the user's financial behavior and external life related data, and can also provide more valuable decision-making information than the user behavior characteristic analysis module based on artificial experience. The "Report" believes that in the next five years, machine learning technology based on automatic factor discovery will be fully popularized in various financial decision-making scenarios.

At the beginning of 2021, Bitcoin still continued its strong upward trend. As of early trading on January 4, Bitcoin once rose to more than 33,000 US dollars per coin. This made many people from interviewed blockchain technology research and development institutions believe that , as Bitcoin’s acceptance by mainstream Wall Street institutions continues to increase, Bitcoin is likely to reach new highs amidst violent fluctuations in 2021, and even exceed US$50,000 per coin.

However, more and more Wall Street investment institutions are giving risk warnings to Bitcoin, which continues to hit new highs.

Wang Jinlong analyzed that although many people are optimistic that Bitcoin will reach new highs amid shocks in 2021, in terms of policy supervision, cryptocurrency investment still faces greater compliance risks. At present, encrypted digital currencies are not considered mainstream currencies or investment products in the United States, and there is no relatively complete regulatory mechanism. However, it is foreseeable that various countries will gradually adopt stricter regulatory measures on encrypted digital currency investment transactions, including anti-money laundering supervision and potential tax evasion supervision. This makes it difficult for many investment institutions to consider Bitcoin as a legal investment. In addition, the risk of market fluctuations in Bitcoin must be taken seriously. In fact, the price of Bitcoin is extremely volatile. It can fall by about 80% in a year and rise at least 2-3 times in a year, and many Bitcoin transactions allow high prices. Leveraged investment, so its large price fluctuations can easily lead to the risk of liquidation, is actually a high-risk investment behavior.

David Rosenberg, a big short seller on Wall Street and founder of Rosenberg Research, also said that the current Bitcoin is a giant bubble.

"Bitcoin's rapid rise in such a short period of time is extremely abnormal for any securities investment variety." He emphasized that this means that Bitcoin has become the current capital market The biggest bubble.

For many financial institutions, 2021 will be a critical year for the success of their digital transformation.

On the one hand, the rise of technologies such as remote video due diligence, remote online signing, and remote conference communication brought about by the impact of the epidemic in 2020 have greatly improved the digital transformation process of financial institutions and shown increasingly significant declines. As a result of this efficiency improvement, it is foreseeable that more and more securities firms, trusts, and wealth management institutions will invest a large amount of financial resources in digital transformation in 2021, and regard digital transformation as a core competitiveness for the future development of enterprises;< br />
The other partyOn the other hand, the comprehensive integrated development of technology + finance has also made more and more senior financial institutions realize that if they do not embrace technology to improve customer service experience and product risk control and operation capabilities, they will easily be eliminated in the intelligent era.

However, both wealth management institutions and financial institutions such as securities firms and trusts that are increasing their digital operations are facing three major challenges in digital transformation. On the channel side, it is necessary to realize digital process management while overlaying lines. Provide professional investment advisory services to meet the needs of high-net-worth customers for in-depth asset allocation services; on the product side, it is necessary to digitize product screening capabilities, investment research capabilities, and product survival management; on the customer service side, big data technology must be fully utilized to Customer needs are stratified, and different types of customer needs are reached and understood in advance, so as to achieve in-depth coordination of wealth, asset management, and investment with differentiated products and services.

Therefore, the digital transformation path of financial institutions in 2021 will show a hundred flowers blooming. For example, some wealth management institutions cooperate with large IT service providers to build a digital operation center using hybrid cloud technology, thus moving all traditional offline business processes online. Through business digitization and process digitization, business operation efficiency and products can be greatly improved. Customization capabilities.

There are also third-party wealth management institutions teaming up with data service providers to achieve digital intelligent management of underlying assets, that is, using AI algorithms to establish data brains that include asset physical examination, transaction diagnosis, risk control and prevention, and asset valuation monitoring. The platform realizes standardization of pre-investment project review, penetrating monitoring during investment, and three-dimensional post-investment management, thereby enhancing the transparency of underlying asset investment management, gaining more investor trust while optimizing its own big data risk control capabilities.

In addition, many securities companies and trust companies are actively introducing the latest technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing and big data to build new intelligent risk control systems and integrate internal and external data. With the help of expert experience and AI models, we can connect all links before, during, and after investment, capital, products, and after-sales to achieve online coverage of all varieties, closed management of the entire process, intelligent management and control of all risks, and intelligent asset management and support for all-scenario offices. Risk management and many other functions help to significantly improve the level of risk management.

"We are still closely observing which digital transformation path will ultimately allow financial institutions to transform and adapt to the business development trends of the intelligent era. It is foreseeable that some financial institutions will suffer from digital transformation. Some financial institutions have relied on digital transformation and the comprehensive promotion of intelligent services to catch up and become new industry leaders." Many financial institution executives believe.

Editor: Li Jianhua

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㈤ How will China’s economy go in 2019

Us take a lookWhat does the chief analyst of iiMedia Consulting, a professional third-party mining and analysis agency for new economic industries, say?

Recently, at the "2019 iiMedia Night and New Economic Industry Development Trend Forum" organized by iiMedia Consulting, Zhang Yi, CEO and chief analyst of iiMedia Consulting, used data to speak and reviewed the results of 2018. The ups and downs summarized the existing problems in industrial development, and also used data to make bold predictions about the trends of the new economic industry in 2019, which aroused widespread discussion in the industry and the media.

1. New social products may spread “virally” during the Spring Festival

As we welcome the New Year and countdown to New Year’s Eve, iiMedia Consulting CEO and Chief Analyst Zhang Yi said in a speech at the forum that every New Year is the peak of innovation for new applications, and reminded that trendy applications are likely to challenge old-fashioned Internet products during the Spring Festival, and the number of downloads will usher in explosive growth. moment. In addition, the Spring Festival every year may be the most dangerous time for Internet companies, because many "killer" businesses have appeared during the Spring Festival. He took Douyin, a short video service that was “very popular” in 2018, as an example. The popularity of this APP was actually the result of a large number of users bringing their short video usage habits back to their hometowns during the Spring Festival.

2. Be cautious about saying that the demographic dividend has bottomed out, and new model companies can still rise rapidly

Recently, "the disappearance of the demographic dividend" and "the end of the traffic era" have become hot topics in the Internet circle It is a buzzword, but Zhang Yi does not agree with this statement. On the other hand, the demographic dividend of major newcomers such as Douyin, Pinduoduo, and NetEase Kaola has not really disappeared. That is the statement of those with vested interests. In his view, in recent years, from the rise of WeChat to the popularity of short videos, they are all "hot" applications that have emerged when China's population has been basically stable. Over the past decade or so, China's Internet companies have experienced explosive growth, and new model companies can still quickly stand out. Therefore, Internet companies need to remain highly vigilant about the competitive situation during the New Year.

3. In the next two years, most of the “blockchains” that ordinary people will have direct access to will be illegal fund-raising and pyramid schemes.

The application of blockchain technology is still in its early stages of exploration. , has not yet reached the stage of real application. Just one year of digital currency experience will leave you with a deep impression. The so-called "coin circle boss" is just an old farmer who keeps fertilizing you in the early stage so that you can quickly grow into a "qualified leek". Public data shows that there are currently more than 10,000 cryptocurrency exchanges in the world. As currency prices continue to fall, it is difficult to realize the dreams of leeks of ten times the currency, hundreds of times the currency, and ten thousand times the currency. The trading volume of the entire market has also dropped sharply, and major exchanges are in urgent need of product launches. Futures contracts and perpetual contracts are becoming a new money-making machine for major exchanges, attracting the turbulent hearts of all walks of life.

In addition, why did Bitcoin plummet? Zhang Yi said that the various currencies currently launched have taken advantage of various opportunities in various chains to do various money-related things. Once the assets are transferred and no one takes over, a plunge is the inevitable result.

At present, the blockchain has almost become a hotbed of illegal fund-raising and pyramid schemes. Zhang Yi bluntly said that in the next 1-2 years, most of the "blockchains" that ordinary people will have direct access to will be illegal fund-raising and pyramid schemes. There is nothing wrong with blockchain technology. It will completely change our way of life in the future, but it may not make your wallet bulge.

4. Internet-made cars: appearance is not as important as safety, and safety must be paid close attention to.

With the birth of the mobile Internet and the sharing economy trend, the deep integration of the Internet and automobiles, a large number of traditional Car companies are beginning to target the online ride-hailing market or develop new energy vehicles. By the end of 2017, China Mobile’s car users reached 440 million. However, fundamental issues such as safety and battery have not yet been effectively resolved.

In the next few years, Chinese government agencies and new energy vehicle manufacturers will continue to make great efforts to solve the problems of short battery life and difficult charging of new energy vehicles. More and more companies will participate in the war and the comprehensive layout of government agencies will be launched. By promoting the rapid improvement of the technical level of each link in the new energy vehicle industry chain and the rapid improvement of supporting infrastructure, the bottleneck in the development of new energy vehicles is expected to be broken.

It is expected that Internet cars will make a breakthrough in 2025, with sales exceeding 10 million units. The market for intelligent driving is vast. Although the autonomous driving market will not see major changes in the short term, it may explode on a large scale in the future. Zhang Yi also mentioned that the appearance of Internet cars is not important, but safety factors are the key to their development.

5. China has entered a new era of consumption, shifting from "basic satisfaction" to "quality" consumption

The "new" of new consumption is in the context of consumption upgrading compared to the past. The “newness” of old consumer behavior. With the development of the economy and the increase of personal income, some consumers in the new consumption era have begun to change their consumption concepts and pursue quality life. This group of people has relatively stable and considerable income, so their needs for life are no longer limited to the material aspects of the past. The pursuit of consumerism, the consumption concept has changed from "the cheaper the better" to "consumption that satisfies one's own emotional needs". They no longer blindly pursue brands, but pursue more personalization in physical consumption and pursue intelligence in service consumption.

However, the quality of goods on traditional e-commerce platforms is uneven, and the prices of high-quality products remain high. They can no longer meet the needs of these new consumer groups. The emerging boutique e-commerce platforms focus on high-quality products with high cost performance. In line with the consumption concepts of new consumer groups. These users have strong spending power, which will promote boutique e-commerce to become an emerging market with huge development potential in the new consumption era.

6. With the rise of new retail, retail stores may usher in a "wave of closures" in 2019

In recent years, new retail formats have matured, and the industry has accelerated the pace of innovation, with the emergence of Many new species have emerged, covering home furnishings, supermarkets, convenience stores, catering, entertainment and other industries, which has really allowed physical stores to quickly seize the market and reignite the war song. According to data from iiMedia Research, the number of mobile e-commerce users in China has reached 510 million, and it is expected that by 201It grew to 550 million people in 9 years.

Why do we need to do new retail? Zhang Yi said that the current online traffic is becoming more and more expensive, and the user experience of online retail is poor. Only by combining online retail and offline experience can we achieve a large number of users. . Judging from the current market environment, new retail is an inevitable choice to promote the transformation, upgrading and renovation of traditional retail. It can enrich our country's product styles, improve product quality, better meet the personalized needs of users, and can effectively stimulate greater consumption. potential.

In addition, Zhang Yi believes that WeChat mini programs are not enough if purely used as an information acquisition tool, and may become another "Taobao" in the future. Different from Alibaba Taobao, WeChat mini programs rely on the huge WeChat user traffic and have the characteristics of spontaneity, strong timeliness, fission communication, and high conversion rate sharing and communication. The cost threshold for making a social e-commerce is relatively high. Lower, the chances are greater.

7. Cross-border e-commerce will continue to be popular in the next three years

With the popularization of mobile Internet and the popularity of the concept of consumption upgrade, users’ demand for cross-border goods consumption has increased, and China The scale of overseas shopping users continues to expand. According to data from iiMedia Research, the number of overseas shopping users in China will reach 149 million in 2019. Compared with purchasing on foreign websites, purchasing on behalf of others, or purchasing overseas on their own, overseas shopping users are more likely to shop on cross-border e-commerce platforms.

With the development of the e-commerce field and the continuous improvement of residents' income levels, users' consumption concepts have also changed. They pay more and more attention to the quality and quality of goods, and no longer blindly pursue low-price promotions. When purchasing goods, they will Comprehensive consideration is given to product branding and safety. The era of price-driven purchases has passed. In this context, how to strictly control product quality will become the focus of platforms. Platforms with good reputation will have greater development opportunities.

8. Payment for knowledge: Let intellectuals find monetization opportunities on the Internet

With the advancement of the era of payment for knowledge and more and more people feeling the urgent need for lifelong learning, knowledge Payment will present higher-quality content that is continuously iterated for lifelong learning and create a new creative experience. Knowledge payment platforms will compete for more high-quality subdivisions. A large number of self-media have begun to monetize knowledge. Knowledge payment will show a trend of vertical segmentation and specialization. Content advantages, including service advantages, will be continuously refined and deepened to solve user problems. Core knowledge requirements.

The current content tends to be vertically segmented, platforms are constantly innovating product technologies, and user consumption is beginning to become rational. According to data from iiMedia Research, the number of paid-for-knowledge users in China in 2018 was approximately 300 million. Users’ knowledge-seeking anxiety will become the core development driver of the paid-for-knowledge industry in the future, with huge room for growth. Users’ payment habits have gradually developed, and the development space of the knowledge payment market has attracted much attention.

9. E-sports may become a new track that the gaming industry relies on and will create greater business space

2015 is the year for mobile phonesIn the first year of mobile e-sports, this year mobile e-sports was paid attention to by the State Sports General Administration and held competitions for it, taking the first step in mobile e-sports. Subsequently, industry giants such as Tencent, Giant, and NetEase have deployed mobile e-sports, further promoting the development of mobile e-sports. So far, mobile e-sports has formed a relatively complete market industry chain.

China Mobile E-sports is going through a stage of transcendent development. The professional league of Mobile E-sports is maturing and its commercial value is emerging. . According to data from iiMedia Research, in 2018, the market size of China Mobile eSports reached 44.93 billion yuan, and the number of users reached 302 million. The growth of games in 2019 depends on the "new track". The development of mobile e-sports events can greatly stimulate players' sense of participation. In the future, in a competitive sports environment, mobile e-sports can unleash more industrial energy.

10. The one that has the opportunity to subvert the social landscape in the future is most likely (short) video social networking

In 2018, the number of short video users in China reached 501 million, and short videos are becoming Mainstream social form. Although Kuaishou and Douyin are temporarily leading in the field of short videos, the pattern is still undetermined in the face of the efforts of giants.

It is said that Toutiao has been looking at houseparty projects this year, and a similar product developed by former employees, Yinyu, is booming in the domestic social market. On the other hand, Snapshots, Flying Chat, and Faceshot, which were previously exposed by Technology News, are all heading into the field of instant messaging. Tencent’s 14-channel army, including WeChat’s newly launched Moment Video, is attacking the short video market in various product forms. Dianping, an LBS community software, also needs to be transformed through short videos to enhance its social functions. Momo’s “Who Says” program this year aims to make short videos in the form of houseparty + Q&A products. There is also Lu Ke in Alibaba’s internal testing, which is a short video of Zhihu’s product logic.

The entire Internet market is keen on deploying the short video market. In the dazzling short video social trend, short video is actually only a basic media form.

11.5G is expected to "reshuffle" the smart terminal market

Smartphones have experienced the 2G and 3G eras, and mobile phone users have experienced Nokia, Philips, Motorola, Coolpad and During the replacement process of Samsung and others, changes in communication technology will inevitably lead to the upgrading of the mobile phone industry. 5G mobile phones will be commercialized in 2019 and officially commercialized in 2020. Smartphone users are about to face a peak replacement period, which indicates that the smartphone market will also face a reshuffle and form a new mobile phone market pattern. It is worth noting that the opportunities brought by 5G are not only at the terminal level, but also the entire industry chain.

㈥ Organized by Qin Chu | The Western Digital Expo and the 3rd Xi'an Blockchain Industry Development Forum were successfully held!

On the afternoon of June 17, 2022, the "2022The Western China Digital Economy Expo and the Third China Xi'an Blockchain Industry Development Forum" (hereinafter referred to as the Forum) was successfully held by Babbitt, West China Network, Global Network, China Report, China News, Sanqin Metropolis Daily, Daqin Network, Xi'an Daily, Xi'an Evening News, Huashang Daily, Huashang.com, Phoenix Wind, Sina.com, Sohu.com, NetEase, Tencent.com, Chain Node, 8 Questions, Inspection Blockchain and many other media provided reporting support for this forum.

This forum is a sub-forum of the 2022 Western China Digital Economy Expo. The forum has the theme of "Focus on the Metaverse, Cultivation of New Business Forms, and Release of New Momentum". Sun Wei, deputy director of the Xi'an Big Data Resources Management Bureau, was specially invited to Director, Director of the Chinese Calligraphers Association and former commander of the Shaanxi Armed Police Corps Wang Chunxin, Chairman Jiang Bo of Xi'an Peihua College, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and President of Shaanxi Vocational and Technical College Liu Shenghui, Director Li Yongbin of the Information Technology Office of the Xi'an Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China, Zhang Yi, deputy director of the Industrial Development Promotion Bureau of Xi'an Chanba Ecological Zone Management Committee, President Tan Min of Xi'an Blockchain Technology Application Association, Secretary-General Li Weipeng of Xi'an Blockchain Technology Application Association, Xi'an Blockchain Technology Application Association Chairman of the Board of Supervisors Zhao Liang, as well as nearly 500 guests including government leaders, keynote speakers, roundtable guests, representatives of industry associations, experts in the blockchain field, financial media representatives, and local enterprise representatives attended the event to discuss cutting-edge topics of the times and talk about the blockchain. The future development trend of the chain industry.

With the strong support of representatives from all walks of life, this forum will include speeches by government leaders, keynote speeches by celebrities, award ceremonies, signing ceremonies, guest roundtable dialogues, etc. , to explore the two-way empowerment path of the digital economy and the real economy, actively promote the cross-regional linkage development of the blockchain industry, release new momentum for the development of the blockchain industry, and continue to promote the integrated development of the digital economy and the real economy.
< br /> This forum officially opened at 14:00 pm on June 17. After the two hosts briefly introduced the government leaders and guests present and expressed their warm welcome, the forum officially opened!
< br /> At the beginning of the forum, Deputy Director Sun Wei of the Xi'an Big Data Resources Administration delivered a welcome speech for the forum. In this speech, Deputy Director Sun focused on the development status of my country's blockchain industry and the development of the city's digital economy. Achievements and other information.

Deputy Director SunThis speech emphasized:

Currently, the global economy is still in a fragile recovery, and the digital economy has become a new driving force and new engine that effectively promotes high-quality economic development. As an important town in the western part of the digital economy industry, Xi'an is based on the new development stage, implements new development concepts, and builds a new development pattern. It has achieved certain results in smart cities, digital economy, etc. Industry organizations such as Xi'an Big Data Association and Blockchain Association The positive guidance has laid a solid foundation for the future development of our city’s digital economy.

In the future, Xi'an will adhere to innovation-driven development, create a good digital ecology, strive to promote digital technology to better serve the real economy, and create an open, fair, just and non-discriminatory digital economic development environment, and welcomes all enterprises. Settled in Xi'an and jointly build a digital economy industry ecosystem!

Speaker: Bao Dawei, Head of Blockchain Strategic Cooperation of FILM

As the first keynote speaker of this forum, Mr. Bao Dawei systematically introduced FILM Its positioning, purpose, technological advantages, practical applications, talent cultivation system, cooperation network and other aspects.

Mr. Bao Dawei said:

As China’s largest blockchain organization, the most dynamic blockchain technology open source community, and the most internationally influential blockchain One of the alliances, the Golden Link Alliance is based in the Bay Area and serves China. It features safe and controllable technology and is committed to improving the ability of financial services to the real economy. Up to now, Golden Link Alliance has achieved full-link localization support, more than 200 applications have been stably produced and run, and many cases have achieved good social and economic benefits; the widely recognized blockchain talent cultivation system has successfully cultivated blockchain talents. There are more than 30,000 professional talents, continuing to output the backbone of the blockchain industry!

Speaker: Tan Min, President of Xi’an Blockchain Technology Application Association

At the forum, President Tan Min spoke of “the problems faced by enterprises and the issues they need to think about”. Starting from the starting point, it introduces in detail the role of digital technology in promoting enterprise development, the industrial structure of the Yuanverse, etc.

President Tan Min said:

Enterprises are eager to use digital technology to improve "market demand, brand building, user acquisition, user stickiness, increased profitability, industrial upgrading, etc." Breakthroughs have been made in this regard, and some companies have already achieved success. Facing the future trend of "digital collections + real economy + metaverse", governments, industry associations, industrial parks, pioneering enterprises and academic institutions are all important promoters of the metaverse, across industries and fields.Technological integration and business innovation are expected to contribute to an increasingly prosperous Yuanverse industrial structure.

After the wonderful speeches of the two guests, this forum ushered in the first signing ceremony: "Yuanongyuan-Empowering the Real Economy to Help Rural Revitalization" Strategic Cooperation Signing Ceremony (hereinafter referred to as: signing ceremony).

Zhao Xiangbing General Manager of Yuannongyuan

Liu Zhiqiang Director of Data Information Service Center of Yanliang District, Xi'an City

Bai Yu Big Data of Pucheng County, Weinan City Center Director

Guo Hongbing Chairman of Luochuan Guotouhao Apple Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd.

Zhang Jianbo Chairman of Xingping Chili Industry Association

Zhang Mai Secretary of the Xiaoying Village Committee of Liquan County

Fu Lei General Manager of Shaanxi New Educated Youth Network Technology Co., Ltd.

Chen Qing General Manager of Dali Baiguo Wangdongzao Cooperative
>
Speaker: Ma Qianli, Vice President of Babbitt & Secretary-General of META50 Forum

As the third keynote speaker of this forum, Secretary-General Ma Qianli took the "Metaverse Concept" as the entry point , introducing "the future product form of the Metaverse and the future copyright form of the Metaverse" and other aspects.

Mr. Ma Qianli mentioned:

As the concept and key technologies of the Metaverse gradually mature, the Metaverse is continuously applied to various scenarios. In the era of mobile Internet, web pages have been replaced by APPs, making people's interactivity more convenient. Thousands of information can be conveyed and output with just a click of a finger; in the metaverse era, product forms have been replaced by NPCs, and AR/AI virtual technology has adopted Panoramic virtual technology improves immersion.

The core of NPC in the future will be the underlying protocol (blockchain) + virtual digital human (visual presentation) + AI (large-scale decision-making). In the future, the copyright form in the metaverse will give birth to new With different asset forms, new creative subjects and new combination states, the new industrial landscape of the future Metaverse is gradually taking shape.

Speaker: Ma Qiang Deputy Blockchain Service Network BSN Development AllianceChairman Unit, Hongzao Technology C00

At the forum, Mr. Ma Qiang systematically explained how blockchain empowers the digital economy, what is NFT technology, the importance of NFT technology in the metaverse, and the nature of NFT Chinese technology system and other contents.

Mr. Ma Qiang mentioned:

The DDC network is a secondary network composed of multiple open alliance chains based on the blockchain service network BSN, and Provides ready-made chain environment and related smart contracts, API and SDK for the generation of NFT/DDC. The BSN-DDC basic network adheres to the eight core concepts of "as transparent as a public chain, fully compliant in the country, low in price, and technologically diverse". It has currently built Tai'an chain, Wuhan chain, Wenchang chain, Fuzhou chain and many other chains based on different Open alliance chain of blockchain technology!

Moderator: Li Haifeng, Operation and Maintenance Director of Qinchu Technology

Roundtable guests:

Li Shi, General Manager of Tencent Cloud Northwest

/> Yao Yao General Manager of Inspur Shaanxi Cloud Equipment

Wang Lei Huawei Cloud Blockchain Product Director

Liu Fuhua Northwest Business Director of Amazon Cloud Technology

Zhang Lei Director of Northwest Internet Business of Alibaba Cloud

Mo Yi Director of Public Affairs of Kingsoft Cloud Government and Enterprise Division

At the roundtable meeting, the guests gathered around the "Yuanverse-Next Generation Internet and With the theme of "Business Scenarios", they respectively expressed their respective views on "the future form of the Metaverse, the direction of efforts in the Metaverse field, the role of cloud computing in the Metaverse industry, and the Metaverse application scenarios worthy of attention." As all the guests said: The Metaverse track is full of imaginative space and is worthy of exploration by all enterprises.

Sharing guest: Bao Shuai, co-founder & COO of Kechuang Information Technology Company

At the forum, Mr. Bao Shuai took "blockchain + autonomous driving" as the starting point. He shared the commercial implementation issues of autonomous driving systems, blockchain-based autonomous driving data sharing, blockchain-based autonomous driving data sharing and other technology implementation directions.

After Mr. Bao Shuai’s wonderful speech, this forum ushered in the second round of signing: the signing ceremony of the Gansu Cultural Exchange Center Silk Road Digital Collection Trading Platform (hereinafter referred to as: signing ceremony).

Deeply exploring new areas of cultural integration and forging the platform of the International Cultural Exchange University, the Gansu Cultural Property Rights Trading Center has always adhered to the purpose of "connecting culture with capital and trading to enhance value", constantly promoting the integrated development of culture and the Internet, and making every effort Create a comprehensive service platform for the cultural industry that integrates cultural elements across industries, regions, specialization, quality and characteristics.

Gansu Cultural Exchange Center Silk Road Digital Collection Trading Platform, as a one-stop digital commodity industry service platform, continuously promotes the confirmation of rights, authenticity, price, certainty, and order of digital commodities, and provides true services The real economy promotes the circulation of digital goods and promotes the deep integration of culture with the Internet, finance and creativity.

Wang Qiming General Manager of Gansu Wenjiao Silk Road Data Collection Trading Platform

Meng Fanying General Manager of Qinchu Technology

Wang Qiming Gansu Wenjiao Silk Road Data Collection General Manager of Trading Platform

Yang Ning General Manager of Shaanxi 322 Cultural and Creative Development Co., Ltd.

Speaker: Yang Yongqiang, Product Director of Zhigui Technology

As the fifth keynote guest of this forum, Mr. Yang Yongqiang took "Application Practice of Metaverse Empowering Digital Industry" as the starting point, and shared with examples the practical application of Metaverse in the digital industry, and the future impact of Metaverse on the digital economy. Influence.

Mr. Yang Yongqiang mentioned:

As an important way to leap into the digital world, many domestic cities have successively issued metaverse incentive policies; as a way to integrate multiple new technologies, As a new social form, Yuanverse has continued to make efforts in the digital transformation process of multiple industries and fields such as urban governance, digital twins, digital collections, digital art, urban exhibition halls, cultural and entertainment activities, virtual digital characters, etc.!

Speakers:Ma Lichuan Deputy Director of Shaanxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Blockchain and Secure Computing

As the last guest speaker of this forum, Deputy Director Ma Lichuan started from "Blockchain Empowers Trusted Digital Economy" "Construction" as the starting point, it systematically elaborates on the current status of domestic and foreign industries, domestic industry development trends, data on various digital economy formats in Shaanxi Province, and challenges faced by the development of the digital economy.

Deputy Director Ma Lichuan said:

The digital economy is a key element in creating a new development pattern. The core of the digital economy is data. If we can promote the innovation of traditional digital elements, Extensive and deep integration with traditional industries has shown great potential in maximizing resource utilization and balancing supply and demand with economies of scale.

With the core reorganization of traditional data elements and the smooth flow of data elements, we can integrate and develop a strong domestic market and vigorously expand foreign trade markets.

At the award ceremony of this forum, President Tan Min, Secretary-General Li Weipeng, and Chief Supervisor Zhao Liang of the Xi’an Blockchain Technology Application Association served as the award guests, respectively awarding the [Yuanverse Industrial Technology Leading Brand] and [Digital Culture Industry Innovation Brand] Two awards, the winning companies are as follows:

Yuanverse industry technology leading brands:

Jinlianmeng, Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud, Huawei Cloud , Kingsoft Cloud, Inspur, Amazon Cloud Technology, Zhigui Technology, Qulian Technology, Qinchu Technology, Hongzao Technology, Feidi XR Technology, Juchi Cloud, Yiyuan Technology

Digital cultural industry innovation brand :

Spiritual Realm Collection, Qin Chu Shu Shu Zang, Red Cave Shu Shu Zang, Unbounded Territory

Moderator: Ma Qianli, Vice President of Babbitt, Secretary General of META50 Forum

Roundtable guests:

Yang Jinfan, director of the Rule of Law and Science and Technology Development Research Office, Northwest University of Political Science and Law

Qi Lu, director of Xiamen Yunda Institute of Physical Intelligence and Data

Zhang Yaosen Deputy Secretary-General of Fujian Blockchain Association

Zhang Wei Nanjing Blockchain IndustryVice President of the Industry Application Association and General Manager of Yiyuan Technology

Han Kui, Product Director of Qinchu

Chen Siqi, Business Manager of Lingjing Collection

Second At the round table meeting, the guests focused on the theme of "blockchain technology promotes the high-quality development of the digital cultural industry" and jointly discussed "how blockchain technology can help the digitalization of my country's cultural industry, and the digitalization of the cultural industry has spawned new consumption and new formats, digital The issues and challenges faced by the cultural industry, how to promote the high-quality and standardized development of the digital cultural industry, and the future key layout directions of digital collections were discussed. The digital cultural industry relies on its advantages of openness, low threshold and interactivity to further extend the cultural Industrial chain, promote structural optimization, and form a new trend of integrated online and offline development!

㈦ "Three Kingdoms Killing" in the currency circle: Who is the enemy of the industry

1

After a magical start to 2020, even in the second half of the year, the situation is still grim. Leaders on the other side of the ocean ignored Douyin’s Mars pattern and vowed to block it; WeChat may be blocked again by the US government. With the overall global economic and financial environment deteriorating, the Chinese currency circle is still in troubled times after a wave of DeFi craze, with projects running away one after another.

Intuitively, this wave of DeFi craze originally blocked centralized exchanges from the door, but unfortunately it was too busy. Binance, which had laid out the smart chain first, suddenly jumped in. , OKEx and Huobi, which did not react for a while, became outsiders. As Binance Smart Chain continues to perform, OKEx and Huobi can only rush to make up for their mistakes. According to various intentional or unintentional revelations, these two companies are very likely to make major moves in the field of defi and public chains.

According to statistics, the trading volume of OKEx, Binance and Huobi Pro accounts for nearly 40% of the global trading volume. Binance ranks first in terms of spot trading volume, and these three companies are currently among the top four in the derivatives field. The above three exchanges are a veritable tripartite in the Chinese market. The grievances and grievances between these three cryptocurrency trading platforms founded by Chinese people can simply write a "Three Kingdoms" in the currency circle.

In May 2018, liquidation rights activists visited OKEx affiliates, and the OKcoin office building was exposed to be beaten by security guards; Binance and Sequoia Capital had a standoff, Huobi But he waved enthusiastically to Sequoia Capital; OKEX founder Xu Mingxing and Huobi Li Lin had just finished drinking, and OKEx’s former executive Li ShuFeijiu announced his resignation and joined Huobi at the speed of light; Huobi Pro, Binance, and OKEx were named by CCTV's "Economic Information Network"; after the great turmoil in the currency market on March 12, 2020, the downtime of OKEx and Huobi was staged to defend rights. Big drama; recently, due to the large impermanent losses of the mining project on the Binance Smart Chain, Binance ushered in a rights protection Rashomon...

Even more shocking What is surprising is that the "blackmailers" in the currency circle have never been absent. They use the form of creating various scandals to "defeat" each other's peers, and use the "Thirty-six Strategies" to "suppress" peers with public opinion. ...Some people even launched a "Binance shady" website. (As of the time of writing, I don’t know whether the website builder has discovered it or has been reported and complained, and it can no longer be opened)

As for the people in the currency circle "Personal attacks" are even less common. For example, malicious photos were posted to smear peers for pornographic marketing - Binance’s He Yi, Liuliu and Qiqi were all maliciously photoshopped to launch personal attacks on them. What is strange is that OKEx once publicly released negative news about its peers on its official website, which was later deleted.

The currency circle is more competitive than the domestic entertainment industry. Of course, for those who are familiar with the currency circle, For the "melon-eating masses", the "infighting" between the three major exchanges may not be new. Just in July last year, the three major well-known exchanges (Binance, Huobi, OKEX) because of Binance The burning of BNB for the eighth time triggered a war of contention, which made the rest of us stunned for a moment. There are also all kinds of "black public relations", to name a few.

For example, the Binance Smart Chain, which was just launched on the mainnet this month, is completely a "trickster" project, because among the three major ones, only Binance has launched it first. The other two companies cannot do smart chain for the time being, so the struggle is not on the table. In addition, when the smart chain first started to run, the opening performance of a certain online project was ruined. Although it was a bit unfair to blame Binance, it was finally caught. Therefore, the real and fake "rights protection group" Wait for the black public relations methods to follow one after another.

In fact, OKEx, Huobi, and Binance have a long history of grievances between them. We can see the clues from the historical context of the three companies. OKEx’s “predecessors” OKCoin and Huobi are both time-honored domestic exchanges, both founded in 2013. According to an "old man" who is familiar with the currency circle, when it first opened, the two families were neighbors and lived in the same building.

Bitcoin’s “crazy” has made these two exchanges the industry leaders.It accounts for more than 50% of the world’s Bitcoin spot trading share. In the early days, OKCoin paid great attention to user experience. Even if users said they lost a few coins, OK would give an explanation, "The harder you work, the luckier you will be." OK successively received millions of angel investments in the early stages, and later received millions from venture capital institutions. USD Series A investment. OK soon entered a period of rapid development - this was also Xu Mingxing's happiest period of entrepreneurship.

Huobi has attracted a large number of users with its permanently free transaction fees. Half a year after its launch, it received tens of millions of dollars in Series A investment from Sequoia Capital. Starting in 2015, Huobi began to have an absolute advantage in market share.

By 2017, Bitcoin once again ushered in a bull market, with the price soaring to nearly $20,000. Another giant, Binance, entered the public eye and broke the confrontation between Huobi and OK. What's more, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao and "the first sister in the currency circle" He Yi were both former executives of OKCoin. Therefore, these paved the way for the fight between the following families.

Among the three exchanges, Binance is the youngest, going online in July 2017. After the September 4th Incident, domestic regulation tightened, and Huobi and OK were busy protecting themselves. Binance focused on differentiation and took the international route from the beginning. All servers were registered and established overseas, and they quickly occupied overseas markets. Binance’s trump card is that it only conducts currency-to-crypto transactions and does not involve cryptocurrency-to-fiat trading pairs, cleverly circumventing regulation. With this trump card, Binance has risen rapidly and its user experience has continued to improve. It once surpassed Huobi and OKEx and became the digital currency exchange with the largest trading volume in the world.

Binance is also the fastest-rising among the three trading platforms: it only took 5 months from its establishment to become the world's number one (based on 24-hour trading volume). At this point, the trend of "three powerful forces" in digital currency exchanges was formed, and the "Three Kingdoms Killing" in the currency circle also officially started and continues to this day. Binance, which occupies a position in the foreign market, is now "fighting" to return to the domestic market. Naturally, it is naturally regarded as a "thorn in the flesh" by peers in the industry, who "want to get rid of it quickly."

But who is the enemy of the industry?

2

< p> Where there are people, there are rivers and lakes, and where there are interests, there are disputes. Behind the quarrel in the currency circle, what is involved is vital interests, and there are deep-seated reasons and historical inevitability. The winner-takes-all "Matthew Effect" is a cruel truth in any field.

In the bull market, everyone is committed to making money. Although competition is inevitable, the market is growing and it is in the stage of making the cake bigger. It is nothing more than grabbing more and grabbing less. Now I have found some big names through the mining boom.On the edge of the market, the market has reached the stage of stock competition. It is not surprising that there is disorderly competition in the fight for the cake.

It is foreseeable that before the next wave of boom or big market arrives, it will become the "new normal" for exchanges to expose each other's shortcomings, report each other's shortcomings, and create negativity.

In fact, these "infighting" behaviors not only waste industry resources, but also make people outside the industry a laughing stock. That's right, it's the competing platform's business to be attacked, and it's the competitor's business to have headaches. I can just sit back and watch. But if the skin is gone, the hair will be attached. If the entire industry is attacked, every platform in the currency ecosystem chain can be summarized with the title of Zhang Yimou's movie - "No One Can Be Missed".

How can there be a complete egg under the crowd?!

The best "way out" for the industry is the three major exchanges. The consensus of competition and cooperation will promote the healthy development of the industry. Although it is impossible to achieve based on the current status of the currency circle, it seems to be the only best way out. As everyone knows, "infighting" and "chaos" in the currency circle are the enemies of the entire industry! The currency circle, which has always been in a gray and sensitive zone, is prone to "both prosperity and loss".

Before OPEC, the oil-producing countries in the Middle East were in chaos and at odds with each other. In the end, they realized that only through unity and cooperation could they protect their own resources and safeguard their own interests. OPEC came into being. Compared with oil, digital currency is certainly very young, but its development trends have something in common. Therefore, the currency circle can learn from this successful experience, that is, competition under a cooperative framework is more conducive to the development of the industry. Major exchanges should look at the future of the industry from a higher level and urge the industry to return to the right path. After all, the main issue in the currency circle today is not survival, but development.

As a link between technology and finance, exchanges play a very important role. It can be said that exchanges have contributed a lot to the industry’s achievements today. So, does the importance of exchanges mean that Binance, Huobi, and OKEx are as stable as Mount Tai? This is not necessarily the case. Apart from other aspects, supervision is always the sword of Dacmos hanging over their heads.

To give a shameful example, the Bitcoin futures of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the world’s largest compliant futures exchange, use the spot settlement price quoted. Regarding the spot prices of six exchanges around the world, Binance, Huobi, and OKEx account for more than 70% of the world’s spot trading shares, but none of them were selected.

This aspect shows the embarrassing situation of the three major exchanges in the eyes of supervision.

P2P is learning from the past. Although the epidemic and the international situationIt has temporarily distracted the government's energy, but I believe that the regulation of digital currencies will soon be put on the agenda. Use heavy codes in troubled times. The currency industry is growing wildly and chaos occurs frequently. Some platforms have touched the legal bottom line and require strong regulatory intervention at the national level. The government and relevant agencies should continue to promote blockchain security standardization, improve supervision mechanisms and review mechanisms, and standardize the application and development of blockchain technology; the focus can be on the formulation and improvement of business rules, rather than the platform's access approval procedures, and should focus on Strengthen behavioral supervision during and after the event to ensure the security of user data. From the perspective of blockchain companies themselves, platforms need to strengthen core technology research and development to ensure the independent controllability of blockchain technology and applications. Dual supervision ensures the healthy development of the blockchain field.

If the "Three Kingdoms Killing" in the currency circle does not want to make progress, still falls into the disputes of the exchange itself, does not carry out the industry ecological layout in a timely manner, and initiates its own "evolution", it will Destined to be eliminated by history. Only by standing at the height of being committed to the overall prosperity of the industry, from the currency circle to the chain circle to the ecosystem, can we be called the leader and leader of the industry. Otherwise, it will be just a "machine" for "cutting leeks" and will surely decline.

3

It is undeniable that the entire blockchain industry is at a historical opportunities for development. Among them, the government’s attitude and actions in setting a high degree of tone and policy support for blockchain are evident. As early as April this year, blockchain was clarified as an important component of new infrastructure by the National Development and Reform Commission. This is another good news about blockchain after blockchain was valued by high-level national officials on October 24, 2019. . In May, the 1st meeting of the Financial Technology Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2020 emphasized "the need to strengthen the application practice of regulatory technology, actively use big data, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, blockchain and other technologies to strengthen digital regulatory capacity building, and continuously enhance financial risk technology. prevention capabilities, and improve the professionalism, uniformity and penetration of supervision." In July, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Letter on In-Principle Agreeing to Five Regional Equity Markets including Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shenzhen to carry out blockchain construction work." It agreed in principle to Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shenzhen and other regions. The sexual equity market participates in the pilot work of blockchain construction.

At the same time, supporting policies from various places have also been introduced to seize the high ground of blockchain technology. These all mean that the blockchain trend is coming again and has begun to enter the application stage, and is expected to be implemented on a large scale in the government affairs and financial fields first. In addition, there are also high hopes for the application prospects of blockchain technology in the fields of traceability, supply chain, medical care, justice, and intellectual property.

This undoubtedly poses a new challenge to companies that have been "making money silently" in the currency circle: they must take an evolutionary paththe way. We can no longer stick to the currency circle itself, but we must devote ourselves to the layout of the blockchain ecosystem. This is also one of the reasons why the currency circle also started to "change its face" at the same time as the "Three Kingdoms Killing".

The author has always called Huobi the "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" in the currency circle, and has been "working quietly", intending to integrate the upstream, midstream and downstream businesses of the industry chain and establish a global Ecosystem, working with excellent blockchain industry research partners to empower industries and associations. Some time ago, Binance, which has been at the forefront of the storm, also publicly announced its "phase results" on its third anniversary: ​​from digital currency transactions, open mining pools, project investments to charity, underlying technology construction, currency With the launch of Binance Smart Chain and blockchain industry research, the outline of Binance’s ecological landscape is becoming clearer and more complete step by step. Just in July, Binance announced its own "Spark Plan" to link the world's top expert resources, actively respond to the government's call, and provide partners with consulting and guidance on new infrastructure technologies (artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing, big data) , technology foresight, industry analysis sharing and guidance.

For a long time, more people have simply understood exchanges in the currency circle as encrypted digital asset trading platforms, while ignoring their construction of blockchain applications. However, the healthy development of the currency circle industry needs to be further "reborn". Each platform must not only be self-disciplined, but also must call for and cooperate with the industry supervision of relevant national departments to jointly create value for the industry ecology, so that the entire blockchain industry can operate in a compliant and safe manner. On the road, rapid development.

The more the industry develops, the more it calls for industry supervision and corporate self-discipline, as well as consideration of the industry's overall evolutionary capabilities and ecological mechanisms. Otherwise, "If God wants it to die, it will need to be crazy." P2P is a lesson learned from the past.

㈧ Give you an in-depth understanding of Turing machines - the era of genius

In recent years, due to the popularity of blockchain, Ethereum Fangfang's unique solidity language implements smart contract functions, and the term Turing completeness comes into everyone's sight.

It is actually difficult for students without computer expertise to understand the meaning of this word. In fact, students majoring in computer science do not have a deep understanding of the connotations of concepts such as Turing machines, Turing completeness, and Turing tests. In order to facilitate the understanding of blockchain technology and smart contracts, the author is going to divide it into several articles to take you from the simple to the deep, step by step, to help you understand the Turing machine in depth. I believe that through these articles, you will be able to understand what Turing completeness is. .

Alan Mathison Turing (June 23, 1912 - June 7, 1954), British mathematician and logician, known as the theory of computer science The father of artificial intelligence.

In 1931, Turing passed the sword examinationKing's College, Bridge University, won a mathematics scholarship for outstanding academic performance.

In May 1936, Turing, who was only 24 years old, published a paper entitled "On the Application of Numerical Computation in Decision-Making Problems". In the paper, he proposed a computing device that was later called "Turing machine", Turing machine is not a specific computer, but a computing concept and computing theory.

Obtained a doctorate from Princeton in 1938. The title of his thesis was "Logic System Based on Ordinal Numbers", which had a profound impact on mathematical logic research. In the same year, Turing returned to the UK and studied at the University of Cambridge. Research fellow at King's College.

During the Second World War, Turing went to the Communications Department of the British Foreign Office in 1939 to engage in military work, mainly in deciphering enemy codes. Due to the need for deciphering work, he participated in the development of the world's earliest electronic computers. He achieved great success in his work. He deciphered the German Enigma code and won the government's highest award, the Medal of Honor of the British Empire, in 1945.

In 1945, Turing ended his work in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He tried to resume his pre-war research in theoretical computer science and develop a new computer.

In 1950, he published a paper "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" (Computing Machinery and Intelligence), which provided groundbreaking ideas for subsequent artificial intelligence science. Proposed the famous Turing test.

In 1950, in October 1950, Turing published the paper "Can Machines Think?" This epoch-making work earned Turing the title of "Father of Artificial Intelligence". At this time, artificial intelligence has also entered the practical development stage. As AI technology continues to mature in recent years, people are increasingly aware of the profoundness of Turing's ideas: they are still one of the main ideas of artificial intelligence.

On June 7, 1954, Turing, who was only 41 years old, was found dead on his bed at home, with a bitten apple beside his bed. This is the origin of the now famous Apple Computer Company logo.

From Turing’s life, we know that he was born in 1912 at the beginning of the 20th century.
In terms of the world's national structure, the First World War (1913~1921) had just broken out at this time, followed by the Second World War from 1939 to 1945. As we all know, these two world wars forced many people to The development of science and technology coincided with Turing's youth during World War II.

In the development of scientific and technological civilization, the mathematicalization of logic has promoted the birth and development of the discipline of mathematical logic. But at the same time, the third mathematical crisis occurred in mathematics during this period, which is detailed below. While Turing was studying at Cambridge University, he studied Mathematics.The course "Basics of Learning" is taught by Newman. Newman's entire course includes the proof of Gödel's incompleteness theorem and unresolved judgment problems.

Behind these technological events is actually people's cognitive For the study of computability theory, Turing is the end of this problem.

By the way, Einstein proposed the special theory of relativity in 1905. In 1927, Turing, who was only 15 years old, in order to help My mother understood the theory of relativity and wrote the abstract of the paper.

Before the 20th century, it was generally believed that all problem types had algorithms, and people's computational research was to find algorithms. In 1900, Hilbert, the famous mathematician at that time, raised the famous 23 mathematical problems to the international mathematics community at the Mathematicians Conference at the turn of the century.
The tenth problem is as follows:

"Diophantine equation" refers to: an integral coefficient equation with one or several variables, and their solutions are only performed within the range of integers.
The simple explanation of the above problem is: given an uncertain equation at random, Determine whether this equation has an integer solution through finite step operations.

In 1970, a Soviet mathematician proved that many mathematical problems have no answers, and even problems with no answers are better than problems with no answers. There are even more questions to answer.

Here the problem of limited, mechanical proof steps is raised, which is actually an algorithm. But at that time, people did not know what an "algorithm" was. In fact, At that time, there were already many problems in the field of mathematics that were closely related to "algorithms". Therefore, the scientific definition of "algorithms" was about to emerge. Then in the 1930s, two people finally proposed a method to accurately define algorithms. One person It is Turing, and one person is Church. Among them, the Turing machine model proposed by Turing is intuitive.

Turing’s way of thinking about this problem is different from ordinary people. When writing the aforementioned paper " "On Computable Numbers and Their Application to Deterministic Problems", Turing was thinking about three questions

A genius like Turing has a high level of understanding when considering problems.
Figure The first thing Ling considers is whether all mathematical problems can be solved. If this problem is not solved, and the problem is solved hard, and finally found that there is no solution, all the efforts will be a waste of time and energy.

For the existence of answers Only part of the mathematical problems can be completed in limited steps, thus determining the boundaries of the computer.

After determining the boundaries, it is necessary to design a universal, effective, and equivalent machine to ensure You can do things according to this method and finally get the answer. The Turing machine is a machine designed by Turing. Strictly speaking, it is a mathematical model and a computational theory model.

From the time the Turing machine was proposed to the present More than 80 years have passed and all computers today, includingEven quantum computers do not go beyond the theoretical scope of Turing machines.

The third crisis in mathematics occurred at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, which was a period of unprecedented prosperity for mathematics. First, the mathematicalization of logic led to the birth of the discipline of mathematical logic.

As early as the end of the 19th century, Cantor conducted foundational research on set theory. People have found that all mathematics can be summarized by using the concept of sets, which means that sets are the basis of all mathematics. However, just when the building was about to be completed, a terrible thing happened. The Russell Paradox proposed by Russell shattered the mathematician's dream.

A popular version of Russell's paradox is:

Why is there a third mathematical crisis?
Because there is a very important concept: the halting problem. The halting problem is a very important issue in the computability theory of logical mathematics and is also the solution to the third mathematical crisis.
The halting problem In layman's terms, the halting problem is the problem of determining whether any program can end its operation within a limited time. This problem is equivalent to the following decision problem: whether there is a program P. For any input program w, it can be judged that w will end within a limited time or loop endlessly.

Some people speculate that the Turing machine model was designed by Turing while thinking about the halting problem, which is very reasonable.

While Turing was at King's College, Cambridge, he studied a new book called "The Mathematical Foundations of Quantum Mechanics", written by the young Hungarian mathematician John von Neumann. Turing realized that computation could be represented in terms of deterministic mechanical motion. In fact, although our current electronic computers are not mechanical in our traditional sense, the electronic movement inside the CPU is equivalent to mechanical movement.

At the same time, Turing also realized that human thoughts and consciousness come from the uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics. This is not only the microscopic world, but also the law of the universe itself. So Turing realized that calculation is deterministic and decidable, while consciousness is uncertain and uncalculable.

Today, with the huge development of artificial intelligence, many people are worried about whether computers will be as conscious as humans. In fact, Turing had already considered this issue more than 80 years ago.

As mentioned earlier, Turing wrote a paper "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" in 1950. In this paper, the term Turing test was proposed:

How difficult is this test? None of our current AIs have completed this test. The AI ​​products recently demonstrated at the Google I/O conference in March 2018 are said to have "partially passed the Turing test." The exact size of this part is unknown.

From the perspective of the history of human science and technology development, the end of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century was the transition period between the second industrial revolution and the third industrial revolution. second jobThe industrial revolution mainly involved the invention and use of electricity, magnetism, and the internal combustion engine. At this time, scientists had more and more understanding of the world and became more and more clear. Natural sciences such as physics and mathematics developed rapidly. Mathematicians at this time discovered that many phenomena can be represented by mathematical models, from the movement of objects to the movement of planets, the conversion from thermal energy to kinetic energy, the conversion from electricity to magnetism, and so on. The question then arises: can all phenomena be expressed by mathematical models? This question really makes people think and study many fundamental issues in mathematics.

There is an old saying in China: In troubled times, heroes emerge. In Turing's era, there were many scientific heroes in the history of science, including Einstein, von Neumann, Turing, Gödel, etc. On the one hand, it was due to the background of the times, and on the other hand, it was really their talent and hard work. The process of the third industrial revolution represented by informatization has been greatly accelerated.

Judging from the thinking, problem-solving methods and cognition of these giants, they are beyond ordinary people. Thinking about the computability theory has given us a lot of inspiration:

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