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Ⅰ How to play against unexpected market trends

The biggest feature of Friday’s market is that it exceeds expectations, mainly in two areas: blockchain and real estate.

First of all, let’s talk about blockchain. The differentiation of blockchain on Friday was expected, but the degree of differentiation and the way of differentiation are beyond expectations. The back row has been adjusted significantly, and Yiqiao shares have exploded and killed many people. There are many, but the front row is firmly sealed and does not provide an opportunity to change hands. This extreme fragmentation trend is relatively unexpected. There is not much problem with the differentiation of the blockchain sector on Friday. And as a relatively new subject, we could have been reasonably optimistic when the market leader has already reached a high level. However, there are certain problems with the differentiation method on Friday. The back row weakened beyond expectations, while the front row targets were not appropriately The exchange of hands eliminates valid differences, and the stability of the chips in the front row will be greatly tested. On Friday night, the U.S. stock blockchain will be adjusted for several days, and supervision is also intended to target it. In the short term, it is necessary to prevent the short-term extreme trend of many killings. Overall, There is a lot of uncertainty about the trend on Monday, so be cautious first. However, as a new theme of blockchain, when the market has reached a high level, if there are really many kills and many stocks appear, the front-row targets can pay attention to the opportunities of selling and buying at low prices to counter-package.

Real estate, real estate has weakened from the leading trend on Thursday, but it exceeded expectations on Friday. Judging from the trend on Friday, it started from the oversold low-price real estate, Rongan Real estate took advantage of the trend and took advantage of the gap in the connecting board space to get listed on the board. However, several major industry leaders such as Vanke, Xincheng Holdings, Poly, and Gemdale began to experience stagflation. The changes in real estate on Friday may be based on the arbitrage sentiment of Tahoe Group's resumption of trading on Monday. The general real estate leader resumed trading on Monday. During the suspension period, the sector's trend was strong, and there should be room for supplementary growth. However, in the short term, the trend of real estate is to reach the top, and the trend is already externally strong and medium-term. In the short term, we will first look at the adjustment. After the adjustment, we will continue to be optimistic about the major real estate leaders. , the industry-leading target with sales of more than 100 billion has the opportunity to follow the white horse trend of the band.

Except for real estate and blockchain, the rest of the market on Friday was generally weak, and Cixin began to experience continuous money losses. Although Guizhou Gas is still trading at a high level, its capital gains are out of the sector. Following the trend of independent monster stocks, chips, semiconductors, and 5G have all seen relatively large declines. Watson Pharmaceuticals has also peaked in the short term. Overall, there are not many bright spots on the market. The only bright spot is that the leader is still expanding. There is space, but the driving effect on the sector is no longer large. Overall, there is no good point to participate in the market.

In fact, it is very obvious on the market. From the perspective of short-term trading, the market height has indeed been achieved. The height of the leading position has exceeded expectations. However, several points that have appeared on the market have weakened and there is no way to start. For this If the market can dig out some new themes, then with the help of the height that the leader has reached, there will be emotional arbitrage opportunities in the short term. However, if some new things cannot be dug out at this position to hedge against profit-making selling pressure, the probability of short-term adjustment is relatively high. , judging from the news over the weekend, there is noThere are too many valuable things that can be dispersed, so short-term speculation has encountered a bottleneck and needs to be trimmed. In addition, short-term concept stocks are weakening. Against the backdrop of 11 consecutive positive gains in the market, we can see whether funds from swing logic stocks can return.

Ⅱ How to view the crazy sell-off?

The GEM has kept most of the bottom-hunters in small and medium-cap stocks stuck today.

The nearly 3% drop was indeed a big surprise. I didn’t expect it to be such a large-scale adjustment. The previous low in December was broken again, with the lowest today being 1,727 points, which pierced my heart...

Draged by the decline in the bardo of the GEM, stocks in the two cities fell into general decline. Except for some high-quality white horses that bucked the trend and strengthened, almost all themes fell into adjustment.

Specifically, affected by bad news such as the fall in coal prices, cyclical stocks such as steel and coal were among the top decliners; while the blockchain sector, which continued to surge last week, also experienced significant differentiation. In addition, affected by lithium The sharp fall in battery prices since the fourth quarter has dragged down the market, and the lithium battery sector has also weakened significantly.

Excluding ST stocks, 27 stocks fell below their limit today, and nearly 500 stocks fell by more than 5%. Today's adjustment is a bit violent...

In the contrasting world of ice and fire, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 1%, with the highest intraday increase of 1.73%, setting a new high benchmark in the past two years. Ping An rose 4.35%. China Merchants Bank 1.36%, Moutai's intraday market value exceeded one trillion, with the highest intraday price of 799.06 yuan.

Insurance and banks have soared today. CPIC, Xinhua, Life Insurance, Ping An Bank, and Industrial and Peasant Construction were extremely stable throughout the day. I couldn’t help but want to get on the bus...

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I think this adjustment may be caused by the movement of funds. The funds in small-cap stocks couldn't hold back and moved to Baimali.

I took the ticket for a long time and it was slow to get up. You must know that some large funds are obtained through leveraged financing and there is interest. The longer the time, the more interest there is, so I gave up and turned around and rode the white horse.

The current white horse trend has been going on for almost a year, and the trend has been formed. Whether the February 8th market will continue this year, whether the white horse will be the best, everyone still needs to be prepared.

A good man will not suffer immediate losses. Changing positions may not be the answer you want most, but it may be the most correct answer now.

These are some of my personal thoughts, which may not be correct, but if the adjustment continues and returns to the 5-day and 10-day lines, I will plan to get on the train. White Mali is still suitable now. Those who get on the bus include Ping An, Agricultural Bank of China, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

On Friday, Watson's biotech hit a thunderous note.

Watson Biotech released a revised announcement on its 2017 performance forecast on January 13. The revised performance ranged from a loss of 533.5 million yuan to a loss of 538.5 million yuan. In 2016, the company made a profit of 70.46 million yuan. Based on this calculation, the company's performance in 2017 will decline by 857% year-on-year.

The company’s 2017 performance forecast previously stated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017 is expected to be 30million to 51 million yuan, a decrease of 27% to 57% compared with the same period in 2016.

500 million has evaporated in two months. This performance has changed too quickly.

The main reason was that the bet failed and the company assumed the liability for compensation from Hebei Daan Pharmaceutical. The amount of plasma collected by Daan Pharmaceutical was far from up to standard, resulting in huge losses.

It stands to reason that if Watson Biotech has such a big bad news suddenly, it can directly place orders at the limit before the market opens. However, today it can be calm and composed without eating a bowl of noodles at the limit all day long. The decline did not exceed 5%, which also shows that the stock has been highly controlled by market makers.

Speaking of this, Uncle Yam would like to talk about the pharmaceutical stocks that have recently released annual performance forecasts.

Among the pharmaceutical stocks that have been disclosed recently, there are 10 companies that have pre-reduced or pre-lossed their performance last year, and a total of 80 companies have pre-earned or pre-increased their performance.

Eight companies including Yifan Pharmaceuticals, Joincare, Livzon Group, Xinhecheng, Shanghai RAAS, Xinlitai, Bikang and Ruikang Pharmaceuticals expect full-year net profits to be 1 billion yuan. above.

Among all listed companies pre-increased, Berry Gene ranks first. The cumulative net profit was 230 million yuan-260 million yuan, an increase of 5594.60%-6311.29%.

On August 10, 2017, the reorganization of Berry Pharmaceuticals was completed. Berry and Kang became the financial parent company and merged the company's financial data, so last year's performance increased significantly by fifty or sixty times.

The eight stocks of Yabao Pharmaceutical, Livzon Group, Yisheng Pharmaceutical, Joincare, Yongan Pharmaceutical, Tigermed, Taihe Health, and Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical are expected to have a year-on-year net profit increase of more than 100%.

Among them, Yabao Pharmaceutical is expected to have the largest year-on-year increase in annual net profit, reaching 788%-818%. Yabao Pharmaceutical stated that the pre-increase was mainly due to the increase in sales revenue of the company’s key products and high-margin products.

Livzon Group increased by 460%, Yisheng Pharmaceutical and Joincare increased by 375% and 373%, and Yongan Pharmaceutical increased by 185%.

In addition to its own performance growth, Livzon Group also transferred 100% equity of its subsidiary Zhuhai Weiweixing Industrial Co., Ltd. for 3.498 billion yuan, which is also one of the factors affecting the annual report.

As the controlling shareholder of Livzon Group, Joincare has also had a certain impact on this result.

Most of the companies that are growing are the same, and each of the losing stocks is miserable in its own way.

In addition to Watson Biotech, which just mentioned, Jiu'an Medical is also expected to suffer huge losses. The changes in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies are -864.28%, -857.18% and -1134.63 respectively. %?-996.68%.

Despite policy support, Jiu'an Medical's performance in recent years has not been outstanding. From 2014 to 2016, Jiu'an Medical's revenue was 425 million yuan, 398 million yuan, and 420 million yuan respectively. Net profits were 10.1975 million yuan respectively, and lossesThe losses were 151 million yuan and 14.4979 million yuan.

Annual reports have begun to be disclosed one after another. For the tickets in hand and the tickets that have not yet been taken, everyone should take a closer look at the financial reports. Which ones are the real performance and which ones are mixed with water? Every data What information is hidden behind it is worth digging into.

[Yam Uncle Review Model]

SSE: Neutral SSE 50: Optimistic

CSI 300: Optimistic GEM: Pessimistic

< p>Small and medium-sized board: Neutral sub-new stocks: pessimistic

Today Guizhou Gas continued to rise by the limit, which is amazing, but it did not effectively drive the entire sector of sub-new stocks during this period, which shows that it is just one person’s carnival, we Come on, the risk of going in to stand guard as a receiver is a bit high now.