中本聪的论文。
比特币是一种点对点的电子现金系统是过去50年来货币经济学最具影响力的贡献之一。比特币技术令人着迷，但也有许多挑战。对于一些观察家来说，这些挑战是无法克服的。例如，斯蒂芬·威廉认为比特币的未来似乎非常黯淡。他总结道，比特币的价值很可能为零，他说，这是一个糟糕的支付系统。
我们对比特币的未来更加乐观。即便如此，我们也不想忽视比特币面临的一些严峻挑战。在本文中，我们将仔细研究一些挑战，并讨论潜在的解决方案。这些问题包括高价格波动、可扩展性、监管不确定性和低利用率。
价格波动
首先，让我们来看看比特币的预定供应路径，比特币是一种通货紧缩货币。这一节将帮助我们了解比特币价格波动的起源。
供应路径比特币。
比特币的供应路径是提前确定的，收敛到2100万个单位，然后就不会再创建额外的比特币单位。一个有趣的问题是，在当前的竞争模式中，比特币单位的预定供应路径如何影响货币政策。
是否可以通缩比特币？
比特币数量的限制使得它成为一种稀缺资源和潜在有趣的价值存储。这可能会导致对比特币持续增长的总需求满足持续供应。从理论上讲，这可能会导致比特币价值的急剧上升，这也是比特币长期出现通缩的原因。
因此，许多用户认为比特币的价值将永远增加。这种信念需要受到挑战。比特币没有内在价值。它不能在生产中被消耗或使用，也不能产生现金流。一种没有内在价值的资产的价格完全取决于对其未来价格的期望。他愿意购买比特币单位，只有当买家假设该单位将以同样的价格出售。
数字黄金是比特币吗？
作为避险资产，比特币的一个潜在用例。在这种情况下，比特币通常被称为数字黄金。许多经济学家反对这一观点，认为比特币并不稀缺，因为它很容易创造新的加密资产。如果任何人都能轻易地创建一个副本，比特币将如何作为一个价值存储？有人提出了这个问题。
不可能复制比特币单位，只能复制比特币软件，然后使用新的加密资产开始新的区块链。这种新的加密资产可以很容易地与比特币区分开来。事实上，在艺术市场上识别比特币复制品要容易得多，有时甚至连专家也被欺骗说复制品是原创的。
波动率分析
为了使资产成为交易所的媒介或会计单位，它需要具有较低的价格波动性。另一方面，低价波动需要灵活的供应。发达国家的中央银行通过灵活调整供应来稳定其货币价值，以适应总需求的变化。事实上，联邦储备制度的建立是为了提供一种灵活的货币，以减少美元总需求变化引起的价格波动。
比特币和这些政府货币之间的区别在于缺乏稳定机制。比特币的总体需求是由价格预期驱动的，这些预期反映了新闻、情感和谣言的不可预测的方式。由于比特币的供应路径是固定的，所以比特币的价格波动很大。
寻求低波动加密货币的稳定货币。
稳定货币是一种旨在通过嵌入稳定性机制是一种加密货币资产。
稳定货币分为三种类型，主要区别在于稳定机制和抵押品的形式。稳定机制要么是算法，要么是质押。抵押品可以在链条下方，也可以在链条上方。
让我们来看看央行如何稳定其货币。
中央银行
央行有两种广泛的模式来稳定其货币。大多数央行都定义了一篮子商品，并宣布了与这个篮子相关的通货膨胀目标。通货膨胀的目标通常是每年约2%的通货膨胀率。有趣的是，没有科学证据表明2%的通货膨胀目标是最好的，但大多数央行仍然使用它。
算法稳定币
纯算法稳定货币的定义特征是没有抵押品。相反，设计师发行了两项资产（有时甚至三项）。一种资产是稳定货币，我们假设它与美元挂钩。第二种资产是在未来日期赎回稳定货币的债券。我们称这种债券为稳定货币债券。
稳定货币的基本稳定机制如下。如果对稳定货币的需求增加，其价格也会上涨。为了保持与美元的联系，发行人创造了额外的稳定货币。这些额外的稳定货币要么被空投，要么被用来赎回任何未偿的稳定货币债券。通过这种方式增加算法，稳定货币的供应最终将降低其价格。
如果需求减少，发行人将创建额外的稳定货币债券，并将其与稳定货币一起出售，以减少流通中稳定货币的数量。稳定货币债券是对未来稳定货币的承诺；换句话说，稳定货币的算法试图通过承诺在未来增加稳定货币供应来稳定下降的价格，代理商在未来购买稳定货币债券。他们以折扣价出售。折扣由市场力量决定。

Satoshi Nakamoto’s paper.
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer electronic cash system that is one of the most influential contributions to monetary economics in the past 50 years. Bitcoin technology is fascinating, but it also comes with many challenges. To some observers, these challenges are insurmountable. For example, Stephen William believes that the future of Bitcoin seems very bleak. He concluded that the value of Bitcoin is likely to be zero, saying that it is a terrible payment system.
We are more optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. Even so, we don’t want to overlook some serious challenges facing Bitcoin. In this article, we'll take a closer look at some of the challenges and discuss potential solutions. These issues include high price volatility, scalability, regulatory uncertainty and low utilization.
Price Volatility
First, let’s look at the intended supply path of Bitcoin, a deflationary currency. This section will help us understand the origins of Bitcoin price fluctuations.
Supply path Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s supply path is determined in advance, converging to 21 million units, and then no additional Bitcoin units will be created. An interesting question is how the predetermined supply path of Bitcoin units affects monetary policy in the current competitive model.
Is it possible to deflate Bitcoin?
The limit on the number of Bitcoins makes it a scarce resource and a potentially interesting store of value. This could lead to a continued increase in total demand for Bitcoin being met by a continued supply. In theory, this could lead to a sharp increase in the value of Bitcoin, which is why Bitcoin suffers from long-term deflation.
Therefore, many users believe that the value of Bitcoin will always increase. This belief needs to be challenged. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It cannot be consumed or used in production, nor can it generate cash flow. The price of an asset with no intrinsic value depends entirely on expectations for its future price. He is willing to buy Bitcoin units only if the buyer assumes that the unit will be sold at the same price.
Is digital gold Bitcoin?
A potential use case for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. In this context, Bitcoin is often referred to as digital gold. Many economists argue against this view, arguing that Bitcoin is not scarce because it is easy to create new crypto assets. How would Bitcoin function as a store of value if anyone could easily create a copy? Someone asked this question.
It is not possible to copy Bitcoin units, only the Bitcoin software and then start a new blockchain with a new crypto asset. This new crypto asset can be easily distinguished from Bitcoin. In fact, it is much easier to identify Bitcoin replicas on the art market, and sometimes even experts are fooled into saying that the replicas are original.
Volatility Analysis
In order for an asset to become a medium of exchange or unit of accounting, it needs to have low price volatility. On the other hand, low price fluctuations require flexibilityLive supply. Central banks in developed countries stabilize the value of their currencies by flexibly adjusting supply to accommodate changes in aggregate demand. In fact, the Federal Reserve System was created to provide a flexible currency that would reduce price fluctuations caused by changes in aggregate demand for dollars.
The difference between Bitcoin and these government currencies is the lack of a stabilization mechanism. Overall demand for Bitcoin is driven by price expectations, which reflect news, sentiment, and rumors in unpredictable ways. Because Bitcoin's supply path is fixed, Bitcoin's price fluctuates greatly.
Seeking a stable currency for low volatility cryptocurrencies.
A stablecoin is a cryptocurrency asset that aims to be a cryptocurrency by embedding stability mechanisms.
There are three types of stablecoins, the main difference being the form of the stabilization mechanism and collateral. The stabilization mechanism is either an algorithm or staking. Collateral can be below the chain or above the chain.
Let's look at how central banks stabilize their currencies.
Central Banks
Central banks have two broad models for stabilizing their currencies. Most central banks define a basket of commodities and declare inflation targets associated with this basket. The inflation target is usually an inflation rate of about 2% per year. Interestingly, there is no scientific evidence that a 2% inflation target is optimal, yet most central banks still use it.
Algorithmic Stablecoins
The defining characteristic of purely algorithmic stablecoins is the lack of collateral. Instead, designers issue two assets (sometimes even three). One asset is a stablecoin, which we assume is pegged to the U.S. dollar. The second asset is a stable currency bond redeemable at a future date. We call such bonds stable currency bonds.
The basic stabilization mechanism for stable currencies is as follows. If the demand for a stable currency increases, its price will also increase. To maintain a link to the U.S. dollar, issuers create additional stablecoins. These additional stablecoins are either airdropped or used to redeem any outstanding stablecoin bonds. By increasing the algorithm in this way, the supply of a stable currency will eventually reduce its price.
If demand decreases, the issuer will create additional stablecoin bonds and sell them along with the stablecoin to reduce the amount of stablecoin in circulation. Stablecoin bonds are promises of a stable currency in the future; in other words, the algorithm of a stablecoin attempts to stabilize falling prices by promising an increase in the supply of stablecoin in the future, with agents purchasing stablecoin bonds in the future. They sell them at discounted prices. Discounts are determined by market forces.