在加密货币价格持续下跌的情况下，加密冬季是一个漫长的时期，这也阻碍了对该行业的热情。所以寒冷的冬天来了吗？目前，加密行业正面临着其年龄史上最关键的时期之一。
自2021年11月创下69000美元的历史新高以来，比特币已经下跌了55%。就在几周前，第二大DeFi生态系统的崩溃造成了现代历史上最严重的财富损失。零售、机构甚至企业投资者在LUNA和UST上损失了600多亿美元，因为排名第七和第十的Token在几天内蒸发了。
更为复杂的是，自第二次世界大战以来，加密货币和股票市场之间的相关性在2022年创下历史新高，这是资本市场最糟糕的一年。在过去六个月里，乌克兰战争的扩张和当前的货币政策只是一些有利于看跌趋势的不利因素。

与2018年的加密冬季相比，2022年的市场崩盘。
很明显，直接看到另一种加密货币的寒冷冬天是令人不安的。然而，自2018年以来，该行业经历了加速发展，最后一个寒冷的冬天持续了大约18个月，数百个项目在ICO时代被冻结。
为了评估加密货币冬季是否即将到来，以及加密货币行业在未来几个月的预期，本报告将2018年加密货币冬季与当前6月的熊市趋势进行了比较。
ICO时代和第一个冬季加密货币。
2017年，随着ICO热潮的推动，加密货币领域正在经历第一个重大扩张阶段，这是当年12月的第一个主要牛市结束。作为一种融资机制，许多现有的初创公司和新项目都采用了加密货币的新概念。
从宏观角度来看，人们对经济持续复苏持乐观态度，2008年大萧条留下的一些伤疤依然可见。然而，科技股和数字谷仍在蓬勃发展。Epic的《堡垒之夜》年收入为85亿美元，苹果已成为最有价值的平台。
加密货币初创公司的狂热吸引了创纪录的资金进入这一领域，其中大部分来自没有杠杆的散户投资者。一些公司甚至决定将自己的整个业务转向区块链，以赶上这一趋势——令人毛骨悚然地提醒人们，他们的名字被改名为区块链或加密。
与2018年的加密冬季相比，2022年的市场崩盘。
然而，与今天相比，区块链行业的利用率更低，甚至更不受监管。到2017年底，在牛市高峰历史上，加密货币总市值首次超过8000亿美元的情况下，只有104个dapp上线运行。BTCH、MIOTA、DASH和XMR以及BTC、ETH、LTC和XRP一起进入市值前十名的Token。
缺乏监管，对业绩不佳的项目投入太多资金，很快使这个新兴行业不可持续。据估计，在ICO时代构思的项目中，90%的项目在启动后不到六个月就失败了。然而，像Dentrand和enjin这样的项目已经成为当今行业的支柱。
许多骗局和失败的项目给整个行业带来了不确定性。一系列事件给该行业带来了足够的压力，使历史上最大的牛市成为艰难加密货币冬季的开始，此前BTC的价格创下历史新高，2017年12月达到近2万美元。
世界上最大的衍生品交易所CME在BTC创下历史新高的同时，推出了第一个基于比特币的期货交易所。大量机构投资者做空比特币，对数字资产施加了前所未有的抛售压力。
此外，有传言称中国、韩国和其他亚洲国家可能会禁止加密货币交易，并在未来几个月内损失5.3亿美元，导致日本场外交易所停止交易，诱使空头回归市场。
与2018年的加密冬季相比，2022年的市场崩盘。
结果，自2017年12月以来，比特币价格暴跌至7,700美元，损失了65%的ATH价值。过度杠杆化的散户投资者损失的资本和金融以及即将到来的不稳定市场导致了残酷的寒冷冬天，冻结了ICO行业，这些行业仍处于萌芽状态。
2018年加密货币的寒冬是一个低谷，持续了近18个月。除了相同的数字外，这个周期的特点是兴趣和参与度非常低，甚至没有。2019年7月，当BTC的价格超过10000美元时，投资者的兴趣恢复了，并开始了一个复苏时期。不久之后，当COBID的流动性在2020年3月崩溃时，复苏时期就脱轨了。
2018年的加密冬季是由行业本身的一系列内在因素造成的。ICO时代的高失败率造成的不确定性，过度杠杆化的个人投资者形象，以及对即将到来的法律法规的怀疑，为加密货币的寒冷冬天创造了一个完美的环境。那么，四年后的历史会重演吗？
冬季加密：随时建立，无冬眠。
有必要了解区块链行业是如何发展到目前的状态的，并将当前的市场形势与2018年进行比较。以前的加密寒冬已经成为Dapp生态系统蓬勃发展的关键时期。我们今天所知道的这个行业的基础是在这个时期建立起来的。
尽管出现了下降趋势，但引领区块链领域的项目仍然致力于建设和加强其产品。以太坊、EOS和比特币的闪电网络实现了一个重要的里程碑，而包括AxieInfinity、ethlend（现在称为Aave），甚至dappradar在该领域缺乏兴趣的时期成功推出了Web3项目。
经过18个月的持续斗争，加密行业开始出现改善的迹象。人们对这个空间再次感兴趣，价格开始上涨。然而，由于COVID几乎影响了每个行业，另一个挫折组织了加密货币的复苏。
2020年3月，全球市场开始崩溃，原因是供应链大规模中断和全球密集封锁。BTC的价格在一天内下跌了近50%，而标准普尔500指数在两周内下跌了23%。对另一个寒冷冬天的恐惧是真实的。
虽然情况很复杂，但亚马逊、Netflix、zoom和Peloton等垂直产业将我们作为社会经验的加速数字化，导致科技股价格飙升。同样，经过两年的建设，Dapp行业开始形成，领先项目展示了他们的增强产品。
2020年夏天，DeFI出现了大量项目，显示了去中心化金融生态系统的潜力。刚刚学会了以食物命名token，dapp行业的叙述已经完全改变，curve、Makerdao、Uniswap、pancakeswap等一些deFi玩家为数十亿空间铺平了道路。
与此同时，拜登和鲍威尔的扩张货币政策在短短两年内就将历史上所有美元的80%打印出来，将散户投资者和机构投资者的注意力转向加密市场，以刺激经济支出。
到2020年10月10日，自2018年初以来，BTC的价格从COVID底部飙升了120%，首次超过1.2万美元。对区块链行业的兴趣又回来了。随着下一轮牛市的开始，采购率、消费者信心和资本投资都有所上升。在短短六个月内，BTC的价格上涨了134%。
2021年牛市DeFi、NFT和游戏助推。
到2021年，加密冬天已经成为一个遥远的记忆。牛市使BTC飙升至60000美元以上，加密货币的市值在4月份首次突破2万亿美元。BTC、ETH、BNB、USDT、DOT、ADA、UNI、LINK巩固为前两大加密货币，展现了该行业的新面貌。

目前的熊市是由复杂的宏观情景引发的。
将时钟推向2022年，Dapp行业的发展比四年前要好得多。在50多个区块链生态系统中，数百个Dapp每天吸引超过250万个活跃钱包。投资者的情况也完全不同。机构和企业投资者现在主导着加密领域。随着加密衍生品的普及，加密资产（AUM）的累计管理数量接近600亿美元。与此同时，风险投资和私人投资者已经投资了超过300亿美元的区块链项目，其中三分之一用于游戏和虚拟世界项目，帮助他们建立Web3元宇宙的基础。
与2018年的加密冬季相比，2022年的市场崩盘。
但从宏观角度角度来看，情况与2018年不同。乌克兰战争加剧的负面影响对全球市场构成了严峻挑战。此外，几周前证实了美联储在年初提高利率以应对通胀上升的疑虑。当时，美联储在过去两年中首次提高了0.5%的利率。
此外，持续印钞的惊人后果也造成了损失。自第二次世界大战以来，标准普尔500指数已经达到了最糟糕的阶段，通货膨胀已经达到了近50年来的最低水平。这些宏观经济因素的总和正导致市场陷入看似衰退的局面。
与2018年的加密冬季相比，2022年的市场崩盘。
宏观经济形势阻碍了由元宇宙投机周期推动的牛市趋势。自11月创下历史新高以来，比特币的价值已经下降了55%，尽管在过去四年中，dapp行业观察到了令人印象深刻的演变。特朗拉的情况给加密货币市场带来了更大的压力，加密货币市场将首次经历宏观经济衰退。
冬天来了吗？
2018年冬季加密货币的018年冬季加密货币的一系列因素存在显著差异。首先，区块链产业已经从一小群孤立的网络发展成为一系列相互关联的生态系统，每天吸引数百万用户。DeFi、NFT和游戏三个主要类别正在蓬勃发展，成为数十亿美元的垂直领域。
同样，投资者的形象也从散户投资者转变为具有更大经济实力的大型机构和公司。对这一领域的了解比以往任何时候都要高，几乎所有的主要体育项目都有加密赞助，这种情况发生在世界上许多城市的网络3产品广告牌上。比特币已被用作法定货币，并可能成为面临恶性通胀的国家的对冲工具，如委内瑞拉和阿根廷。
NFT也是如此。这种类型的数字资产与股票和加密市场脱钩，被证明是最近历史上最具弹性的资产之一。艺术一直是历史上最具抵抗力的投资工具之一，就像艺术一样。Web3品牌的崛起，位于人民币宇宙的前沿，显示了该领域的有机增长。包括阿迪达斯、耐克、汇丰银行、华纳兄弟在内的许多零售巨头都与YugaLabs、Sandbox和RTFKT等Web3品牌合作。我们正在看到领先的Web2项目人才流向区块链世界。
尽管区块链行业已经变得如此重要，但挑战仍然存在。特蕾丝的崩溃使该部门陷入瘫痪。在高波动期间，包括特蕾在内的许多稳定货币很难保持联系，除了DAI和其他Token之外。一般来说，计算稳定货币和空间的信任水平可能会阻止智能基金进入被削弱的DeFi空间。安全和法规是其他话题，需要尽快特别关注。
除了区块链固有的挑战之外，股票和加密市场之间的高度相关性也带来了另一个负担。正如前面提到的，自20世纪40年代以来，资本市场经历了最糟糕的一年开始。高飞科技股的价格大幅下跌，如Netflix、Facebook、roku、Wix和robinhood，但也有一些例外。随着经济衰退的可能性越来越大，资本市场的短期前景似乎并不乐观。
与2018年的加密冬季相比，2022年的市场崩盘。
冬天的加密冬天来了！
尽管dapp行业的成熟度和web3社区的加速扩张，加密货币的冬季可能已经到来，但在评估了当前形势并将其与2018年进行了比较之后。宏观经济形势和terra的崩溃可能对加密货币市场来说太过分了，因为加密货币市场已经面临着eta牛市回调阶段。然而，由于采用水平的原因，对该行业的兴趣不应像2018年那样下降。
作为一种具有独特经济属性的新型数字资产，比特币、NFT和其他加密货币应该继续需要。此外，企业和政府的采取将迫使立法者制定规范数字资产的政策，从而成为主流媒体的头条新闻。
此外，还必须考虑到加密市场是由周期性组成的。任何行业都不可持续增长，整合和投降周期健康，可以在市场上创造金融稳定。在Meta的投机周期之后，预计将会出现回调。然而，当股票和加密货币之间的相关性高于过去时，乌克兰战争引发了一场金融危机。
经济衰退并不一定是一件坏事。我也经历过其中的一些。这种情况经常发生，如果繁荣持续太久，就会出现不当的资本配置。它开始在傻瓜身上下雨了。类似的情况也适用于加密货币的寒冷冬季，这应该被视为净化市场的机会。成功的项目将在困难时期继续建设，而空项目将永远无法恢复。
对于初学者来说，加密货币的冬季泡沫可能会破裂，但事实并非如此。区块链行业在过去经历了一个寒冷的冬天，但它一直保持着灵活性。虽然这一领域即将经历第一次衰退，但在许多垂直领域展示的成熟度使加密领域处于良好地位，可以抵御长期熊市。
现在的主要问题是，春天离我们还有多远？

Crypto winter is a long period amid continued declines in cryptocurrency prices, which has also dampened enthusiasm for the industry. So the cold winter is coming? Currently, the crypto industry is facing one of the most critical periods in the history of its age.
Bitcoin has fallen 55% since hitting an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. Just a few weeks ago, the collapse of the second largest DeFi ecosystem caused the worst loss of wealth in modern history. Retail, institutional and even corporate investors lost more than $60 billion on LUNA and UST as the seventh and tenth-ranked tokens evaporated in a matter of days.
To further complicate matters, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and the stock market hit an all-time high in 2022, marking the worst year for capital markets since World War II. The expansion of the war in Ukraine and current monetary policy are just some of the headwinds that have favored the bearish trend over the past six months.

Compare the 2018 crypto winter to the 2022 market crash.
Obviously, it’s unsettling to see directly another cryptocurrency’s cold winter. However, the industry has experienced an acceleration since 2018, with the last cold winter lasting about 18 months and hundreds of projects being frozen in the ICO era.
To assess whether crypto winter is imminent and what the cryptocurrency industry can expect in the coming months, this report compares the 2018 crypto winter to the current bear market trend in June.
The ICO era and the first winter of cryptocurrencies.
In 2017, the cryptocurrency space was going through its first major expansion phase, driven by the ICO boom, which marked the end of the first major bull market in December of that year. As a financing mechanism, many existing startups and new projects have adopted the new concept of cryptocurrency.
From a macro perspective, there is optimism about continued economic recovery, with some scars from the 2008 Great Recession still visible. However, tech stocks and the digital valley are still booming. Epic’s “Fortnite” has annual revenue of $8.5 billion, and Apple has become the most valuable platform.
The frenzy over cryptocurrency startups has attracted record amounts of money into the space, much of it from unlevered retail investors. Some companies have even decided to shift their entire operations to blockchain to catch up with the trend—a chilling reminder that their names were changed to blockchain or crypto.
Compare the 2018 crypto winter to the 2022 market crash.
However, the blockchain industry is less utilized and even less regulated than it is today. By the end of 2017, when the total market value of cryptocurrencies exceeded $800 billion for the first time in the history of the bull market peak, only 104 dapps were online. BTCH, MIOTA. DASH and XMR are among the top ten tokens by market capitalization together with BTC, ETH, LTC and XRP.
Lack of regulation and too much investment in underperforming projects quickly made this emerging industry unsustainable. It is estimated that 90% of projects conceived in the ICO era failed less than six months after launch. However, projects like Dentrand and enjin have become mainstays of the industry today.
Many scams and failed projects have brought uncertainty to the entire industry. A series of events put enough pressure on the industry to make the biggest bull run in history the beginning of a difficult crypto winter, after the price of BTC hit an all-time high, reaching nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
CME, the world’s largest derivatives exchange, launched the first Bitcoin-based futures exchange at the same time that BTC hit all-time highs. A large number of institutional investors have shorted Bitcoin, exerting unprecedented selling pressure on the digital asset.
In addition, there are rumors that China, South Korea and other Asian countries may ban cryptocurrency trading and lose $530 million in the coming months, causing Japanese OTC exchanges to halt trading, tempting short sellers to return to the market.
Compare the 2018 crypto winter to the 2022 market crash.
As a result, Bitcoin price plummeted to $7,700 since December 2017, losing 65% of its ATH value. Capital and financial losses from over-leveraged retail investors and the coming unstable market resulted in a brutal cold winter that froze the ICO industry, which was still in its infancy.
The cryptocurrency winter of 2018 was a trough that lasted for nearly 18 months. Aside from the same numbers, this cycle was characterized by very low to no interest and engagement. In July 2019, when the price of BTC exceeded $10,000, investor interest resumed and a recovery period began. Soon after, the recovery period was derailed when COBID’s liquidity collapsed in March 2020.
The crypto winter of 2018 was caused by a series of factors inherent in the industry itself. The uncertainty caused by the high failure rate of the ICO era, the image of over-leveraged individual investors, and skepticism about upcoming laws and regulations have created a perfect environment for a cold winter for cryptocurrencies. So, will history repeat itself four years from now?
Winter encryption: Create at any time, no hibernation.
It is necessary to understand how the blockchain industry has developed to its current state and compare the current market situation with 2018. The previous crypto winter has become a critical period for the Dapp ecosystem to flourish. The foundations of the industry we know today were laid during this period.
Despite the downward trend, projects leading the blockchain space remain committed to building and strengthening their products. Ethereum, EOS andBitcoin’s Lightning Network achieved a major milestone, while projects including AxieInfinity, etlend (now called Aave), and even dappradar successfully launched Web3 during a period of lack of interest in the field.
After 18 months of continued struggle, the crypto industry is starting to show signs of improvement. There was renewed interest in the space and prices began to rise. However, as COVID has affected nearly every industry, another setback has derailed the cryptocurrency recovery.
In March 2020, global markets began to collapse due to massive supply chain disruptions and intensive global lockdowns. The price of BTC fell by nearly 50% in one day, while the S&P 500 fell by 23% in two weeks. The fear of another cold winter is real.
Although the situation is complex, vertical industries such as Amazon, Netflix, Zoom, and Peloton are accelerating the digitization of our social experience, causing technology stock prices to soar. Likewise, after two years of construction, the Dapp industry began to take shape, with leading projects showcasing their enhanced products.
In the summer of 2020, a large number of DeFI projects emerged, showing the potential of the decentralized financial ecosystem. Having just learned to name tokens after food, the narrative of the dapp industry has completely changed, with some DeFi players such as curve, Makerdao, Uniswap, pancakeswap and others paving the way for billions of spaces.
Meanwhile, Biden and Powell’s expansionary monetary policies have printed 80% of all U.S. dollars in history in just two years, turning the attention of retail and institutional investors to the crypto market to stimulate Economic expenditure.
By October 10, 2020, the price of BTC had surged 120% from the COVID bottom, surpassing $12,000 for the first time since early 2018. Interest in the blockchain industry is back. As the next bull market begins, purchasing rates, consumer confidence and capital investment all rise. In just six months, the price of BTC increased by 134%.
The 2021 bull market will be boosted by DeFi, NFT and games.
By 2021, crypto winter has become a distant memory. The bull run saw BTC soar above $60,000, with the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization surpassing $2 trillion for the first time in April. BTC, ETH, BNB, USDT, DOT, ADA, UNI, and LINK have consolidated into the top two cryptocurrencies, showing a new face of the industry.

The current bear market is triggered by complex macro scenarios.
Pushing the clock forward to 2022, the Dapp industry is in much better shape than it was four years ago. Across more than 50 blockchain ecosystems, hundreds of Dapps attract more than 2.5 million active wallets every day. The situation for investors is completely different as well. Institutional and corporate investors now dominate the crypto space. With encryptionThe popularity of derivatives has led to the cumulative number of crypto assets under management (AUM) approaching $60 billion. At the same time, venture capital and private investors have invested more than $30 billion in blockchain projects, a third of which is in gaming and virtual world projects, helping them build the foundation of the Web3 metaverse.
Compare the 2018 crypto winter to the 2022 market crash.
But from a macro perspective, the situation is different from 2018. The negative impact of the intensifying war in Ukraine poses a serious challenge to global markets. Additionally, concerns that the Fed raised interest rates at the start of the year in response to rising inflation were confirmed a few weeks ago. At the time, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.5% for the first time in the past two years.
Additionally, the staggering consequences of continued money printing have taken their toll. The S&P 500 is at its worst since World War II, with inflation at its lowest level in nearly 50 years. The sum of these macroeconomic factors is leading the market into what appears to be a recession.
Compare the 2018 crypto winter to the 2022 market crash.
The macroeconomic situation impedes the bull market trend driven by the Metaverse speculative cycle. Bitcoin has lost 55% of its value since hitting an all-time high in November, despite the impressive evolution the dapp industry has observed over the past four years. The situation with Trump has put more pressure on the cryptocurrency market, which is about to experience a macroeconomic recession for the first time.
Is winter coming?
Winter 2018 Cryptocurrencies There are significant differences in a range of factors for cryptocurrencies in Winter 2018. First, the blockchain industry has grown from a small group of isolated networks to a series of interconnected ecosystems that attract millions of users every day. Three major categories, DeFi, NFT and gaming, are booming and becoming multi-billion dollar verticals.
Similarly, the image of investors has also changed from retail investors to large institutions and companies with greater economic power. Awareness of this space is higher than ever, with crypto sponsorships in almost all major sports, and this happens on billboards for Network 3 products in many cities around the world. Bitcoin is already used as a fiat currency and could become a hedge for countries facing hyperinflation, such as Venezuela and Argentina.
The same is true for NFT. This type of digital asset is decoupled from the stock and crypto markets and has proven to be one of the most resilient assets in recent history. Art has been one of the most resistant investment vehicles in history, just like art. The rise of the Web3 brand, at the forefront of the RMB universe, shows organic growth in this space. Many retail giants including Adidas, Nike, HSBC, and Warner Bros. are partnering with Web3 brands such as YugaLabs, Sandbox, and RTFKT. We are seeing an exodus of talent from leading Web2 projects to the blockchain world.
Although the blockchain industry hashas become so important, but challenges remain. Therese's collapse crippled the department. During periods of high volatility, many stablecoins, including Trey, have difficulty staying relevant, with the exception of DAI and other Tokens. Calculating the level of trust in stablecoins and spaces in general may prevent smart funds from entering the weakened DeFi space. Safety and regulations are other topics that require special attention as soon as possible.
In addition to the challenges inherent in blockchain, the high correlation between stock and crypto markets creates another burden. As mentioned earlier, capital markets are off to their worst start to a year since the 1940s. High-flying tech stocks such as Netflix, Facebook, Roku, Wix, and Robinhood have seen significant price declines, but there have been some exceptions. As a recession becomes increasingly likely, the short-term outlook for capital markets does not appear promising.
Compare the 2018 crypto winter to the 2022 market crash.
Winter Encryption Winter is coming!
Despite the maturity of the dapp industry and the accelerated expansion of the web3 community, the cryptocurrency winter may have arrived, after assessing the current situation and comparing it to 2018. The macroeconomic situation and the collapse of terra may be too much for the cryptocurrency market, which is already facing an eta bull market correction phase. However, interest in the industry should not decline as it did in 2018 due to adoption levels.
As a new digital asset with unique economic properties, Bitcoin, NFT and other cryptocurrencies should continue to be in demand. Furthermore, adoption by businesses and governments will force lawmakers to enact policies regulating digital assets, making mainstream media headlines.
Also, it must be taken into account that the crypto market is made up of cycles. No industry can grow sustainably and consolidation and capitulation cycles are healthy to create financial stability in the market. Following Meta’s speculative cycle, a pullback is expected. However, the war in Ukraine triggered a financial crisis when the correlation between stocks and cryptocurrencies was higher than in the past.
A recession is not necessarily a bad thing. I've been through some of this too. This happens all too often, and if a boom lasts too long, a misallocation of capital can occur. It starts raining on fools. A similar scenario applies to the cold winter months for cryptocurrencies, which should be viewed as an opportunity to cleanse the market. Successful projects will continue to be built during difficult times, while empty projects will never recover.
For starters, the cryptocurrency winter bubble may have burst, but that’s not the case. The blockchain industry has experienced a cold winter in the past, but it has remained flexible. While the space is about to experience its first recession, the maturity demonstrated across many verticals puts the crypto space in a good position to withstand a secular bear market.
The main question now is, how far is spring from us?