用微观经济学解释区块链的概念,用微观经济学解释区块链技术

区块链技术是一种新兴的数字技术，它可以为支付、记录和确认交易提供安全可靠的基础。它的数据存储在分布式的节点中，并且可以被全球用户安全可靠地访问。用微观经济学来解释区块链，可以拓展3个关键词：去中心化、可信性和可审计性。

去中心化：去中心化是指在没有中央机构的情况下，网络中的参与者之间进行交易和记录信息的过程。区块链技术支持去中心化，可以替代传统的中央机构模式，将交易和记录信息的权利交给参与者。由于参与者之间的交易是相互信任的，因此可以更有效地完成交易，同时也可以有效地降低交易成本。

可信性：可信性是指交易过程中的信息是否可靠。区块链技术可以提供高度可信的交易环境，因为它使用了加密技术来确保信息的安全性。由于区块链技术可以提供可信的交易环境，因此可以有效地降低交易的风险，使参与者更加放心。

可审计性：可审计性是指交易过程中的信息是否可以被审计。区块链技术可以提供可审计的交易环境，因为它使用了分布式账本技术来记录所有交易信息。由于区块链技术可以提供可审计的交易环境，因此可以有效地确保交易的透明度，使参与者更加安全。

总之，区块链技术可以提供去中心化、可信性和可审计性的交易环境，从而为支付、记录和确认交易提供安全可靠的基础。它的数据存储在分布式的节点中，并且可以被全球用户安全可靠地访问，为用户提供了更加安全可靠的交易环境，从而推动了经济的发展。

A. What are the theories of cryptoeconomics

Cryptoeconomics aims to study the protocols in the decentralized digital economy. It is a combination of cryptography and economics, with the help of New disciplines established such as computer science, network theory, and economic incentives.
It includes theories or technologies such as game theory, hash function, consensus mechanism, distributed system and economic incentive mechanism. ,
It is a derivative of the blockchain. It can be said that the blockchain is its typical example.

B. The Test of Narrative—About Robert Shiller’s "Narrative Economics"

After studying a lot of mainstream economics, I gradually felt a growing disconnect with the mainstream. Create an expanded sense of distance. The reason is undoubtedly because we have to deal with the real economic society every day, but mainstream economics always seems to be some distance away from reality - the more complex the model, the more sophisticated the assumptions, and the more clever the derivation, the closer it is to reality. The adaptability is more limited.

Later I also learned that related doubts and self-deprecation even appeared within the American economics community, which is the center of economics research: For example, most research conclusions in microeconomics are almost common sense. Research also roughly knows the results; macroeconomics, which everyone cares about because macroeconomic policies affect everyone, is very poor at predicting.

It was when I was constantly thinking about the contradiction between this mainstream theory and the reality around me that Professor Robert Shiller and his narrative economics came into view. In a more popular introduction, Professor Shiller is mostly known for his professorship at Yale University, winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics, and as a renowned behavioral finance scientist. However, for me, I saw the introduction of the Chinese translation of "Narrative Economics" in last year's book newsletter, and was moved by its focus on examining the key characteristics of real economic society, so I started reading. The path to narrative economics.

Looking at the brief history of the development of mainstream macroeconomics and microeconomics, from Walras’s general equilibrium to Marshall’s partial equilibrium, as well as the aggregate supply and aggregate demand that all economic students cannot avoid, they are all It is based on two key assumptions, namely the assumption of rational economic man and the hypothesis of perfect information.

This theory examines more the assumed rational man, economic man and the average man in a statistical sense, thereby achieving comprehensive and aggregate research.

In the development context of behavioral economics, whenever we study people, we examine specific people who perform real behaviors.

For example, Ludwig von Mises, the master of the Austrian School, in his book "Human Behavior", based on real personal behavior, he concluded that human behavior has certain This first axiom of purpose.

The core logic of Shiller’s narrative economics is to examine the impact of popular narratives on economic society and human behavior.Influence. One of the key research tools is epidemiological models borrowed from medicine.

Here, narrative refers to a special form of story. Stories with multiple factors such as history, culture, the spirit of the times, and individual choices will become household names through word of mouth and the derivative effects of public opinion media, and then become important public beliefs of a society and a period. This emphasis on important elements within the story and its meaning to the recipient is what distinguishes narrative from ordinary stories.

Following the definition of the concept of narrative, I can’t help but think of the interdisciplinary concept that has become increasingly popular in recent years, discourse. This term originally came from linguistics, and now it is increasingly related to the external world. The fields of communication, public opinion research, and international issues research are closely connected.

Linguist H.G. Widdowson initially defined discourse as the use of sentence combinations, while van Dijk believed that discourse is a communicative event and a collection of various meanings; Later, combining geographer David Harvey's research on social practices and activity types, time and space positioning, material resources, character characteristics and other different elements, discourse studies scholar Fairclough summarized the material and social , cultural psychology and abstract meaning are four interconnected and dialectically realized discourses. This evolution of the concept of discourse should have a lot of reference significance for understanding the integration of narrative in economics.

In order to make the role of narrative in economic operation easier to understand, Shiller intuitively used the research paradigm of narrative economics to analyze Bitcoin and blockchain at the beginning of "Narrative Economics" Why was technology so popular?

Bitcoin was born shortly after the financial crisis broke out in 2008, and its price once exceeded $1,000 in 2017.

Looking back at 2008, affected by the financial crisis, the market was filled with distrust of financial supervision and a yearning for the non-interference and privacy protection brought by decentralization. All this has contributed to the ups and downs of Bitcoin but its prosperity to this day. Satoshi Nakamoto, the founder of Bitcoin, is still a mysterious person to this day. No one knows who he is, and no one even dares to conclude that he actually exists.

At the same time, the high-tech nature of blockchain technology, coupled with the popularity effect of the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices, and the FOMO (FOMO) inspired by young people in the process Fear of Missing Out, fear of missing out) mentality, all together constitute the perfect economic narrative that has spawned the rapid rise in popularity of Bitcoin and blockchain.

The example of Bitcoin perfectly illustrates the economicEconomic narratives are similar to the contagiousness of epidemic viruses in their spread and influence. This is also the entry point for Hiller’s narrative research.

Shiller believes that the popular narratives behind economic and social phenomena are like influenza:

Behind the big narrative is often a combination of a series of narratives, that is, the narrative planet ;Some earlier narratives also provide the background for other later narratives.

Any scientific model of economics is inseparable from some basic assumptions, and narrative economics is no exception.

After briefly introducing examples represented by Bitcoin, Shiller gave his seven key ideas. Of course, even if they are assumptions, these constructs are more like abstractions derived from real experience rather than convenience in the economic statistical sense:

In addition to these basic assumptions, Shiller also discussed related Issues of causal logic when examining problems.

For example, sometimes we may face wrong causality, especially when analyzing the economic impact of narratives, when it is inevitable to confuse the direction of causal transmission.

More importantly, compared to various other sciences, an embarrassing point of economics and economists is that it is difficult for them to conduct overall controlled experiments to confirm conjectures and inferences; therefore, For narrative economics, although Shiller and his colleagues are still trying to find more feasible paths, they can still mainly rely on the research of economic history.

The main body of "Narrative Economics" takes up nearly 60% of the book, adopts the basic research method of behavioral economics in the form of case analysis, and focuses on studying and introducing the nine most important events in the history of economic development. Representative long-term economic narratives, as well as their mutation and recurrence and their impact on the economy and society. These include panic and confidence, frugality and conspicuous consumption, the gold standard and gold and silver bimetallism, real estate booms and busts, stock market bubbles, and more.

Shiller pointed out that for the public, the most familiar classic economic narrative is undoubtedly the crazy economic boom before 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression from 1929 to 1933.

The madness of the former is reflected in the fact that everyone is rushing to recommend stocks. One of the shoe boy narratives tells that a shoe boy gave a big man on Wall Street (although the accurate version of the story is doubtful, and even The authenticity of the story itself cannot be supported by data. It doesn’t matter which big shot it is.) was busy making stock market investment suggestions while shining shoes, and this just attracted the big shot’s attention. Immediately in 1929 Sell ​​stocks before the market reaches its peak.

Here, in addition to the power and magic of the narrative itself, what is equally important is the great man’s sense of gathering style.

Hiller believes that the public’s understanding of major events is not an absolute accident, and in many cases it is precisely a leaf that knows the autumn.; Therefore, the collection of stories aimed at understanding narratives can examine the general public's understanding of major events.

For this reason, in another classic example in economic history, Shiller also gave another interpretation. After the Versailles Peace Conference, Keynes, the then chief representative of the British Treasury, Dissatisfied with the compensation plan, he resigned. Shearer believes that the reason why he is dissatisfied with the compensation plan and pessimistic about the future is largely because he heard the public’s pessimistic interpretation of the Treaty of Versailles in the context of the economic downturn, and this came from the public. The collective consciousness should not be ignored.

In general, narrative economics is an interdisciplinary research exploration that uses narrative or discourse as a clue to analyze their impact on human cognition, behavior and economic decision-making.

Nowadays, mass media has increasingly played the role of selecting, disseminating, creating, and sharing information. Whether it is entertainment to death or a mob, it has become more and more common in most people's minds. Cognition. It can be said that today is an era of social media that places special emphasis on communication, especially viral communication; accordingly, actively shaping and influencing narratives and discourses is also of great significance for economic decision-making and entrepreneurship and innovation itself.

Shiller said,

Whether it is the real estate boom or the narrative of frugality and conspicuous consumption, this is confirmed.

Since 2020, the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, a major public health emergency, has become a new exogenous variable that has a huge impact on the economy and society. At the same time, the new coronavirus not only provides the most intuitive sample for all the public to have a deeper understanding of epidemiological virus infection models, but it can also become a new narrative in itself. Where the COVID-19 narrative goes will surely be a vivid case of narrative economics.

Of course, to this day, narrative economics and its larger category, behavioral economics, can still only be regarded as a niche and marginal cluster in the big flower of economics. , at least they are far from developed to the extent of being written into macroeconomics textbooks - by then they may be considered mainstream acceptance.

However, no matter how the schools are divided and disputed, the so-called mainstream, that is, the macro-microeconomic analysis framework of the neoclassical synthesis, must face more and more challenges from narrative. Especially in the current macro and micro context where the COVID-19 epidemic is raging, the economic impact is unprecedented, and the assumptions of many sophisticated models are invalid. When those narrative elements are having a real impact on the real economy and society, they cannot be captured by the so-called perfect models. When accommodated and analysed, the methodological challenges posed by narrative economics should draw more attention to the real behavior of real people in the real world.