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❶ Blockchain Era: Transformation from Information Internet to Value Internet

Guosen’s perspective

Guosen Overseas Group’s perspective:

With the development of the Internet to this day, its main function is to allow information to circulate on the Internet, and information is spread by copying (A is copied to B). The "ledger" constructed by the blockchain is open, transparent, non-tamperable, peer-to-peer interconnected, and easy to trace, and builds an infrastructure based on a trust mechanism to allow the value of digital assets to circulate efficiently on the Internet, and digital assets occur on the Internet. Transfer of value (transfer from A to B, rather than copying from A to B). We are optimistic about the future of blockchain. However, the most important achievement of blockchain at this stage is the evangelism of ideas. Its emergence allows the market to see the shortcomings of the "Internet of Information" and the trend of the "Internet of Value".

Comments

The relationship between blockchain and Bitcoin

Explaining blockchain, there is no way around Bitcoin. The "invention" of Bitcoin has proven the feasibility of blockchain technology. Bitcoin is not the entirety of blockchain technology, but only one of its applications. Without Bitcoin, it’s possible that blockchain wouldn’t have happened, or at least not anytime soon.

The origin of the word "blockchain" is the "chain of blocks" in the original English version of the Bitcoin white paper. When translated into Chinese, the word "blockchain" is used. As the focus of Bitcoin mining shifts to China, the Chinese market has become the main battlefield for blockchain and Bitcoin. The English domestic market of blockchain is written as "blockchain", which has become a proper noun for the entire blockchain technology in the world. (Noun evolution path: chain of blocks - blockchain - blockchain).

The total amount of Bitcoin is limited, stimulating market speculation

Whether Bitcoin is regarded as a commodity or currency, due to its limited total amount, it stimulates market speculation on Bitcoin. Price, referred to as currency speculation. According to the Bitcoin generation mechanism, the total number of Bitcoins is 21 million.

Bitcoin is the reward after a new block is connected. A block is generated every 10 minutes. A certain number of Bitcoins are rewarded for each block generated. 50 are rewarded in the first four years. The number of Bitcoin rewards is halved every four years, so the total number of Bitcoins is 21 million. Calculation method: {50 X 6 X 24 X 365} X 4 X {1+1/2+. . . . . (1/2)n}=21 million (2.1*107).

Technical principles of blockchain

Blockchain timestamps all transactions through random hashing and merges them into an ever-extending random hash-based, working The proof-of-work chain is used as a transaction record. Unless all the proof-of-work is completed again, the transaction record cannot be changed. There are three steps to forming a new block:

1. The miner packages the four parts of the "ledger, the header of the previous block, the timestamp, and the random number sequence X" within a period of time into a block;

2. Through a large number of calculations, the miner adjusts the random number sequence X of the block, generates the composite required hash value, and obtains Bitcoin rewards.

3. Miners connect the new block with the previous block to form a new blockchain.

The number of patents is an important indicator for quantifying blockchain companies at this stage

The global blockchain industry is still in the early stages of development. Most companies are in the conceptual design stage and have no commercialized products. It is difficult for outsiders to objectively evaluate the pros and cons of startups. We believe that the number of blockchain invention patents can reflect the potential of each company and is an important indicator for distinguishing blockchain companies through quantitative means at this stage.

Investment advice: Based on the fundamentals of the company, focus on the value of the Internet in the blockchain era

With the development of the Internet to the present, its main function is to allow information to circulate on the Internet, and information can be copied. propagation method (A is copied to B). The "ledger" constructed by the blockchain is open, transparent, non-tamperable, peer-to-peer interconnected, and easy to trace, and builds an infrastructure based on a trust mechanism to allow the value of digital assets to circulate efficiently on the Internet, and digital assets occur on the Internet. Transfer of value (transfer from A to B, rather than copying from A to B). We are optimistic about the future of blockchain. However, the most important achievement of blockchain at this stage is the evangelism of ideas. Its emergence allows the market to see the shortcomings of the "Internet of Information" and the trend of the "Internet of Value".

Realizing the "Internet of Value" requires large-scale application implementation, not a single technology. At this stage, blockchain is still in its early stages of development. We are optimistic about the future of blockchain, but we do not overestimate the present of blockchain.

In the Hong Kong stock market, there are many companies involved in blockchain. Based on the company's fundamentals and the number of blockchain patents, we recommend Tencent Holdings and Launch Technology, maintaining performance forecasts and recommendation ratings.

Tencent (0700.HK): We expect the company’s revenue growth rate from 2019 to 2020 to be 22% and 22%, and net profit growth rate to 23% and 16%, of which NON-GAAP profit growth rate is 15%, 16%. The EPS corresponding to 2019 and 2020 are HK$10.4 and 12.1, and the target valuation range is maintained at 380 to 400 yuan, corresponding to 31 times to 33 times PE in 2020. The overweight rating is maintained.

Launch Technology (2488.HK): We predict that the company’s revenue growth rate from 2019 to 2020 will be 9.7% and 12.2%, and its net profit growth rate will be 69% and 29%, corresponding to EPS of 0.32, 0.42 Hong Kong dollars. We maintain a "buy rating" and recommend a reasonable valuation of HK$8-9, corresponding to 25-28 times PE in 2019.

Risk warning

1. BlockchainIdeas cannot be turned into products. 2. The emergence of new technologies causes the blockchain to be falsified. 3. The profits from the company’s existing business cannot support the long-term R&D investment in blockchain.

Appendix: Blockchain-related companies in Hong Kong stocks

1. Tencent (0700.HK): There is a dedicated blockchain portal (https://trustsql.qq). On October 19, 2019, Tencent released the "2019 Tencent Blockchain White Paper" to provide an overall introduction to Tencent's blockchain. The solution includes the TrustSQL blockchain underlying platform and Tencent Cloud TBaaS, and details four Tencent blockchain best practices, including blockchain electronic invoices, micro-enterprise chain, Zhixin Chain and blockchain bank draft. Tencent, which focuses on "connection", continues to develop infrastructure construction in the field of blockchain and promotes the implementation of "blockchain+" industry solutions to promote value connections between enterprises and between enterprises and consumers. Through the "blockchain+" model, we empower the financial and real industries, promote the integration of blockchain and industry, and accelerate the construction of industrial blockchain.

2. China Mobile (0941.HK): On October 15, 2019, the Blockchain Service Network (BSN) press conference and event was hosted by the Information Center, hosted by China Mobile Communications Group Corporation and China UnionPay Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Beijing Hongzao Technology Co., Ltd. The Technology Development Summit Forum was successfully held in Beijing. China Mobile utilizes existing resources, cloud facilities and computing storage facility resources to conduct independent research and development and optimize existing facilities; as a new cornerstone, China Mobile promotes the mutual empowerment between 5G and blockchain.

3. Ping An of China (2318.HK): The number of global blockchain invention patent applications disclosed in 2018 was 84, ranking 7th in the world. Ping An relies on blockchain technology to improve the intelligent level of urban management. Ping An applies blockchain to medical health, targeted poverty alleviation, social welfare, etc.

5. ZhongAn Online (6060.HK): Anlian Cloud, a professional ecological cloud service platform based on artificial intelligence, blockchain and cryptography. The platform uses Zhongan Chain independently developed by Zhongan as its underlying infrastructure and also develops electronic signing , digital identity, distributed encrypted storage, certificate storage, traceability and other nearly 10 vertical applications.

6. Kingsoft (3888.HK): It was the first to implement Game + Blockchain applications and solutions. Currently, the game cloud business is exploring the application of blockchain technology and accelerating the expansion of the game ecosystem. In the first half of 2018, Kingsoft Cloud took the lead in launching the "project-X" plan for the entire ecosystem of blockchain games, realizing a project consisting of blockchain platform infrastructure construction, blockchain underlying technology, and blockchain game development, operation, and distribution. Complete blockchain game ecological structure.

7. HC Group (2280.HK): On January 31, 2018, HC Group announced that its first application scenario based on blockchain was officially launched.The cooperation framework agreement signed with Joyvio Co., Ltd. will start from the agricultural field to build HC Group’s blockchain products, and use the advantages of industrial big data and blockchain application scenarios to expand the modern agricultural blockchain market.

8. Launch Technology (2488.HK): The company is China's earliest leading high-tech enterprise dedicated to the research and development and production of automobile diagnosis, testing, maintenance, and tire equipment. As a leader in the Internet of Vehicles industry, the company is deeply involved in exploring solutions for the integration and monetization of automotive big data. In 2018, the company ranked fifth in the world in terms of the number of blockchain-related patent applications, standing at the forefront of new blockchain technologies. The company has combined blockchain technology with industry applications and developed the "Super Chain Project" series product, a 4G vehicle data collection terminal with blockchain technology – GTBOX-I, tailored for the Internet of Vehicles industry. Launch Technology has publicly stated its position many times: No matter whether it is declining or rising, it refuses to get involved in digital currencies and ICOs. It neither public nor private placements, and concentrates on exploring the value of the chain.

9. Meitu Company (1357.HK): The vision of Meitu Blockchain is to connect the digital world and reality by creating a decentralized, secure and encrypted identity pass for users: Meitu Intelligent Passport (MIP - Meitu Intelligent Passport) world and create a trusted blockchain environment. On the one hand, Meitu Intelligent Pass (MIP) allows users to anchor assets scattered across various applications on the blockchain, and through face recognition AI verification, use various applications more conveniently and securely, and receive privacy protection; On the other hand, Meitu Intelligent Pass (MIP) also allows some services that require strong verification, such as the medical and education fields, to more effectively use blockchain to serve users.

10. Gome Retail (0493.HK): On April 14, 2018, according to Gome Retail, Gome has entered the era of comprehensive digitalization. Operating digital stores is Gome’s “No. 1 Project”, and the company’s focus on blockchain technology and decentralization Technology is always doing research. The relevant person in charge of Gome Retail said: Gome’s shared retail business model and employee beauty store retail strategy are very consistent with the decentralized model system of the blockchain. The employee beauty store is also a new channel that Gome hopes to build.

(Source of article: Guosen Securities)

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