在Unsplash上拍摄的是JasonPofahl。 免责声明：本文不应视为财务建议，仅用于教育和娱乐目的。 最近比特币价格大跌。但是最坏的情况还是在前面。这篇文章将分析为什么比特币价格在未来几个月如何发展，以及你能做什么准备。 技术观——比特币涨到20.000美元的案例？ 先说技术角度，比特币长期走势依然完好无损，如下图（对数刻度）所示。BTC价格在小幅跌破之后，如今勉强维持在趋势线之上。 如2020年3月所示，即出现重大问题的迹象，2020年3月显示。如果出现更大的崩盘，很大程度上会取决于行程深度和反弹速度。 突然上移怎么办？虽然绝不排除这种可能，但我觉得目前持续上行的基本面完全不在这里，后面会详细介绍。 当我们看到纯粹的技术事实时，坚持不良情况，我们能期待多大的负面影响？ 如果这次问100个加密货币技术分析师，比特币能跌到多低，你会得到99个不同的答案。但2017/2018年前的新高在15-20k左右，似乎是很多人能接受的低点。 这个假设也得到了下列事实的支持：在没有其他重要支撑线的情况下，从目前的30K左右跌至20K。 如果我们真的想看这些价格水平——当然—不可预测。然而，研究真实世界中正在发生的事情可以为我们提供更多关于预期结果的线索，尽管K线趋势图肯定有用。 宏观经济观——最坏的情况还在后面。 从宏观经济的角度来说，情况看起来很糟糕。我们正在进入一个严重的全球衰退。让我们看看外面发生了什么。 打破供应链。 由于零新型冠状病毒战略，我们仍在经历供应链中断的局面。随着中国工厂、港口和其他对全球经济的重要因素的不断关闭，这种情况进一步恶化，许多企业何时能够恢复正常的运营模式尚不清楚。 俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争。 影响非常严重。除了越来越多的迹象表明我们必须处理全球粮食危机外，我们还面临着日益恶化的全球能源危机。这是因为乌克兰和俄罗斯在全球小麦产量中占了很大一部分。西方对俄罗斯的制裁也将导致许多地方的肥料短缺。2022年，随着全球各国争夺粮食和能源，价格将继续上涨。 综上所述，我们在商品价格上涨的情况下，直接进入滞胀——经济停滞或萎缩。 央行利率 随着生活必需品价格持续飙升，世界各国央行将持续上涨，将通胀拉回可接受的水准。这与提及的其他问题一起，将持续损害股票市场。这反过来，将对加密货币市场产生负面影响。根据经验，我们知道比特币价格与美国股市息息相关。近日有消息称，比特币价格与纳斯达克的关联度达到0.8。 股市能跌到多低？ 同样，我们这里能做的，是有根据的炒作。但有一点可以确定的是，过去十几年，金融经济和实体经济之间出现了巨大的差距。到目前为止，这个差距已经得到了央行大笔廉价资金的支支持。当资金流收紧时，金融市场就会缩水。有人认为，我们要看到比2008年金融危机时期更大的崩盘了。标普500看起来有缩水50%的可能，到目前为止只亏了20%左右。下跌空间还是很大的。 最大的问题是，比特币会跟随吗？如果是这样，到什么程度？ 寻找底部 最终，股票和加密货币市场都将触及低点。我的猜想是，这将发生在2023年初至年中的某个地方。这是因为，在2022年末最为明显的时候，能源危机、粮食危机等因素才会见顶。同时，这一切问题都不会消失。因此，我们可能会发现自己正处在市场受到重创、商品价格暴涨的陌生境地——上述的滞涨。由于通胀没有任何进展，相信崩盘后比特币价格必然会大涨。 你应该在这个熊市做什么？ 如上图所示，投资比特币是一项长期任务（3-5年）。这给了我们一个定期增持的机会。相信未来几个月会是比特币增持、以太坊等已经建立加密的好时机。但如上，从我们目前的情况来看，价格大概率会走低。保持冷静，等待合适的时机。另外，每当价格下跌时，都会配置你的投资资金来增持。 资料来源：https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/chartcoin/bitcoin-fean-fean-greed/ 如何识别买入机会？别人贪我怕，别人怕我贪这句名言大家都知道。在给我们的投资组合多添加比特币时，可以用比特币恐惧和贪婪指数做参考：当指数低于10时，可能就是好的添加点。 另一种寻找买入时机的方法是看成交量。当成交量较高时，一般表明市场处于临时顶部或底部。 查看未实现净损益（NUPL）K线走势图。若NUPL线接近或处于投降区域，则该增持了。 另一个有用的反映市场心理的K线趋势图是1年加HODL波。当1年加HODL时，这可能表明投资者正在增加持股。

Photo by Jason Pofahl on Unsplash. Disclaimer: This article should not be considered financial advice and is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Bitcoin prices have plummeted recently. But the worst still lies ahead. This article will analyze why the Bitcoin price will develop in the coming months and what you can do to prepare. Technical View – The Case for Bitcoin to Rise to $20,000? Let’s talk about the technical perspective first. Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains intact, as shown in the chart below (logarithmic scale). BTC price is now barely holding above the trend line after falling slightly below it. There were signs of major problems, as March 2020 showed. If there's a bigger crash, a lot will depend on the depth of travel and the speed of the rebound. What to do if it suddenly moves up? Although this possibility is by no means ruled out, I feel that the fundamentals for a sustained upward trend are not here at all. I will introduce it in detail later. How much negative impact can we expect by insisting on bad situations when we see purely technical facts? If you ask 100 cryptocurrency technical analysts this time how low Bitcoin can go, you will get 99 different answers. But the new high before 2017/2018 was around 15-20k, which seems to be a low point that many people can accept. This hypothesis is also supported by the fact that there was a drop from the current level of around 30K to 20K without other important support lines. If we really want to look at these price levels - of course - they are unpredictable. However, studying what is happening in the real world can give us more clues about what to expect, although trend charts can certainly be useful. Macroeconomic perspective – the worst is yet to come. From a macroeconomic perspective, things look bad. We are entering a severe global recession. Let's see what's going on out there. Break supply chains. We are still experiencing supply chain disruptions as a result of the zero-coronavirus strategy. The situation has worsened as Chinese factories, ports and other vital elements to the global economy continue to close, making it unclear when many businesses will be able to return to normal operating models. The war between Russia and Ukraine. The impact is very serious. In addition to growing signs that we must deal with a global food crisis, we also face a worsening global energy crisis. This is because Ukraine and Russia account for a large portion of global wheat production. Western sanctions against Russia will also lead to fertilizer shortages in many places. In 2022, prices will continue to rise as countries around the world compete for food and energy. To sum up, we are heading straight into stagflation - a stagnant or shrinking economy - amid rising commodity prices. Central Bank Interest Rates As prices of daily necessities continue to soar, central banks around the world will continue to raise rates to bring inflation back to acceptable levels. This is in line with the other questions mentionedTogether with the problems, it will continue to damage the stock market. This, in turn, will have a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market. From experience, we know that Bitcoin prices are closely correlated with the U.S. stock market. Recently, it was reported that the correlation between Bitcoin price and Nasdaq reached 0.8. How low can the stock market go? Likewise, what we can do here is make well-founded hype. But one thing is certain: over the past decade or so, a huge gap has emerged between the financial economy and the real economy. So far, the gap has been supported by a flood of cheap money from central banks. When capital flows tighten, financial markets shrink. Some believe we are about to see a bigger crash than during the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 looks likely to lose 50%, and so far has only lost about 20%. There is still a lot of room for decline. The big question is, will Bitcoin follow? If so, to what extent? Finding the Bottom Eventually, both the stock and cryptocurrency markets will hit lows. My guess is that this will happen somewhere in early to mid-2023. This is because factors such as the energy crisis and food crisis will peak when they will be most obvious at the end of 2022. At the same time, none of these problems will go away. As a result, we may find ourselves in the unfamiliar position of markets being hammered and commodity prices skyrocketing—the aforementioned stagflation. Since there is no progress in inflation, I believe that the price of Bitcoin will definitely rise sharply after the collapse. What should you do in this bear market? As the chart above shows, investing in Bitcoin is a long-term undertaking (3-5 years). This gives us an opportunity to add to our holdings on a regular basis. I believe that the next few months will be a good time to accumulate holdings of Bitcoin and established cryptos such as Ethereum. But as mentioned above, judging from our current situation, the price will most likely go lower. Stay calm and wait for the right moment. Plus, every time the price drops, your investment funds will be allocated to increase your holdings. Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/chartcoin/bitcoin-fean-fean-greed/ How to identify buying opportunities? Everyone knows the famous saying that others are greedy but I am afraid; others are afraid that I am greedy. When adding more Bitcoin to our portfolio, we can use the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index as a reference: when the index is below 10, it may be a good point to add. Another way to find buying opportunities is to look at volume. When volume is higher, it generally indicates that the market is at a temporary top or bottom. View the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) chart. If the NUPL line is close to or in the capitulation zone, it’s time to accumulate. Another useful K-line trend chart that reflects market psychology is the 1-year plus HODL wave. When HODL is added in 1 year, this may indicate that investors are increasing their holdings.